越南會(huì)從美國的關(guān)稅中受益嗎？
Will Vietnam benefit from the U.S tariffs?
譯文簡介
如果美國不針對越南，那就可以。
正文翻譯
Will Vietnam benefit from the U.S tariffs?
越南會(huì)從美國的關(guān)稅中受益嗎？
越南會(huì)從美國的關(guān)稅中受益嗎？
Some say that by increasing tarrifs on China, Chinese and American companies will relocate to Vietnam, benefiting our economy and making us a local superpower. What do you think?
有人說，通過提高對中國的關(guān)稅，中國和美國公司將遷往越南，從而使我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)受益，并使我們成為區(qū)域大國。你怎么看？
有人說，通過提高對中國的關(guān)稅，中國和美國公司將遷往越南，從而使我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)受益，并使我們成為區(qū)域大國。你怎么看？
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.equalizerredsea.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
評論翻譯
很贊 ( 11 )
收藏
likes: 170
If USA doesn't target VN, then yes.
Otherwise, VN would be negatively affected, as VN's export to USA is like 25% of total VN's GDP.
Given high trade's deficit between USA and VN, I doubt that Trump wouldn't target VN.
如果美國不針對越南，那就可以。
否則，越南將受到負(fù)面影響，因?yàn)樵侥蠈γ绹某隹诩s占越南 GDP 總量的 25%。
鑒于美國和越南之間的高貿(mào)易逆差，我懷疑特朗普不會(huì)放過越南。
likes: 64
Even if he did, it's hard to imagine it'd be higher than China, EU, Mexico and Canada. If everyone's getting fucked, the winner is the one getting the least fucked.
即便如此，也很難想象（越南受到的影響）會(huì)比中國、歐盟、墨西哥和加拿大更高。如果大家都遭殃，那么贏家就是受害最輕的那個(gè)。
likes: 45
Even China he is only planning 10% rn, way fucking lower than he promised and fucking lower than Canada and Mexico at 25%.
What a president eh?
Edit: Forgot there was already a 25% before so 35% in total now. But he promised 60% so my point about it being lower still mostly stands.
即使是中國，他現(xiàn)在也只計(jì)劃 10%，比他承諾的低得多，比加拿大和墨西哥的 25%也低得多。
多好的總統(tǒng)啊？
編輯：忘了之前已經(jīng)有 25%了，所以現(xiàn)在總共是 35%。但他承諾的是 60%，所以我關(guān)于更低的觀點(diǎn)基本上還是站得住腳的。
likes: 16
He’s basically holding it over their heads so they would get scared and give into his demands lol. China has bargaining power.
他基本上是讓關(guān)稅在他們頭上懸著，好讓他們害怕，滿足他的要求，笑。中國有討價(jià)還價(jià)的能力。
likes: 29
Looks like Canada and Mexico ain't gonna back down that easily. And we're just two *weeks* in.
Hope the price of egg has gone down over there lM.
看來加拿大和墨西哥不會(huì)那么容易就認(rèn)慫。咱們這（特朗普上任）才剛開始兩周呢。
希望他們那邊的雞蛋價(jià)格已經(jīng)降下來了，哈哈。
likes: 1
My friend in California told me it's about $12 for a dozen eggs now, going up under Trump due to Bird Flu.
我在加州的朋友說，現(xiàn)在一打雞蛋要12美元左右，特朗普當(dāng)政的時(shí)候因?yàn)榍萘鞲羞€在漲價(jià)。
likes: 11
He should be more worried about his country own pricing first before imposing any tariffs because if implemented prices for Americans are going to shoot up drastically lol. Esp considering Mexico and Canada are among US's top 3 trading partners and about 30% of American woods supply comes from Canada.
Good thing Canada and Mexico look like they aren't going to give up without a fight first. Good for them.
在征收任何關(guān)稅之前，他應(yīng)該首先更擔(dān)心自己國家的價(jià)格，因?yàn)槿绻麑?shí)施關(guān)稅，美國人的價(jià)格將大幅上漲，哈哈。特別是考慮到墨西哥和加拿大是美國的三大貿(mào)易伙伴之一，而美國約30%的木材供應(yīng)來自加拿大。
好在加拿大和墨西哥看起來不會(huì)不戰(zhàn)而屈人之兵。干得好。
likes: 15
Trump knows that the production chain cannot be reversed, but he does not dare to increase taxes on rich Americans, so he taxes other countries to cover the budget deficit. But this is essentially raising taxes on the middle class and poor Americans, the gap between rich and poor will become bigger and bigger.
特朗普明知生產(chǎn)鏈無法逆轉(zhuǎn)，卻不敢對美國富人增稅，只好向其他國家征稅來彌補(bǔ)預(yù)算赤字。但這實(shí)質(zhì)上是給美國中產(chǎn)階級(jí)和窮人增稅，貧富差距會(huì)越來越大。
likes: 3
Trump already gave China 25% tariff since his last term, and it was kept until now. So now it becomes 25% + 10% = 35%.
特朗普自上任以來已經(jīng)對中國征收了 25% 的關(guān)稅，并且一直維持到現(xiàn)在。所以現(xiàn)在變成了 25% + 10% = 35%。
likes: 1
Still much lower than the 60% he promised so my point still stands.
還是比他承諾的 60% 低得多，所以我的觀點(diǎn)仍然成立。
likes: 2
Canada kinda deserves it. The liberal gov has been trying to undermine canada's best partner and Canadians voted those people in. That will change when the conservatives are back in control and harmony is restored.
加拿大有點(diǎn)自作自受。自由黨政府一直試圖破壞加拿大最好的伙伴關(guān)系，而加拿大人自己投票選擇了這些人。等保守黨重新掌權(quán)，一切都會(huì)好起來。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.equalizerredsea.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
likes: 1
He usually starts with some crazy starting point that is completely unreasonable, then negotiates to what he really wants somewhere in the middle so the other side can say they were able to get him to back off somewhat. He has successfully used this haggling tactic several times already.
他慣用的手法是先提出一個(gè)離譜到極點(diǎn)的要求，根本不講道理，然后再慢慢談判，最終達(dá)到他真正想要的結(jié)果。這樣一來，對方就能說他們成功讓他讓步了。他這套討價(jià)還價(jià)的伎倆已經(jīng)屢試不爽了。
likes: 1
But VN is more dependent on US exports at this point. US stands only for less than 15% of total exports for China and much less for overall GDP. For Vietnam it’s one fourth of GDP.
但越南現(xiàn)在更依賴美國出口。美國只占中國出口總額的不到15%，占GDP的比例就更少了。而對越南來說，這個(gè)數(shù)字占了他們GDP的四分之一。
likes: 6
Trump's tariffs are more political then economic. Notice the countries Trump hit with tariffs are all countries he has issues with on a political basis. China and the US are geo political rivals Trump did a trade war in his first term. Trump detests Canada so it was always going to go that way. And the US and Mexico have numerous issues with each other. Trump wants them to comply to his demands by using tarriffs as a way to strong arm them. Vietnam is so under the radar in American politics most Americans don't even realize how much of their textile based products actually come from there.
特朗普的關(guān)稅更多是政治性的，而不是經(jīng)濟(jì)性的。請注意，特朗普征收關(guān)稅的國家都是他在政治上有過節(jié)的國家。中國和美國是地緣政治上的競爭對手，特朗普在第一任期內(nèi)就打了一場貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。特朗普討厭加拿大，所以這是必然的結(jié)果。而美國和墨西哥之間也存在許多問題。特朗普希望通過關(guān)稅來強(qiáng)迫他們遵從他的要求。越南在美國政治中幾乎不被關(guān)注，大多數(shù)美國人甚至沒有意識(shí)到他們的紡織品實(shí)際上有多少來自那里。
likes: 7
This yea, Trump just mostly wants countries he has beefs/problems with to bow down to his will. He doesn't want to negotiate, he wants them to "pay".
Notice how he's pretty much kinda alright or even on decent terms with Russia and China despite them mostly being considered enemy of the West. It's pretty much because those guys don't actively try to meddle in American politics *directly* and are ready to go along Trump's favors since they are already a pretty self sustainable economy on their own. Meanwhile Trump prob sees Canada and Mexico as these lesser countries yet the US is depending so much on them so he just imposes tariffs on them to curb their supply line.
It's hilarious that many of his supporters fail to see that most of his policies are more political than trying to actually solve any social or economical problems within his country. I just saw a post about how him imposing a 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada is to stop fentanyl and illegals immirgrants.
I was like: "What does tariff have to do with stopping fentanyl or illegal immigrants". Well because they dont, it's just a dumb excuse because the main reason is him wanting Canada and Mexico to bow down to his demands. Well now that he picked a fight with Canada, can't wait to see them retaliate by imposing tariffs or place restrictions on exporting to US lol.
And it has only been 2 weeks and it's alr this much of a circus. Wonder what would happen in the next 4 years.
沒錯(cuò)，特朗普主要是想讓與他有過節(jié)/問題的國家屈服于他的意志。他不想談判，只想讓他們"付出代價(jià)"。
請注意，他與俄羅斯和中國的關(guān)系還算不錯(cuò)，甚至還算融洽，盡管它們大多被認(rèn)為是西方的敵人。這差不多是因?yàn)檫@些國家并不積極地試圖“直接”插手美國的政治，而且因?yàn)樗鼈冏约阂呀?jīng)是一個(gè)相當(dāng)自給自足的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，所以愿意順著特朗普的意思走。與此同時(shí)，特朗普可能將加拿大和墨西哥視為較小的國家，但美國卻非常依賴他們，因此他對他們施加關(guān)稅以遏制他們的供應(yīng)鏈。
可笑的是，他的許多支持者都沒有意識(shí)到，他的大多數(shù)政策更多的是政治性的，而不是試圖真正解決國內(nèi)的社會(huì)或經(jīng)濟(jì)問題。我剛看到一則帖子，提到他對墨西哥和加拿大征收25%的關(guān)稅是為了阻止芬太尼和非法移民。
我當(dāng)時(shí)想：“關(guān)稅和阻止芬太尼或非法移民有什么關(guān)系？”其實(shí)沒有關(guān)系，這只是一個(gè)愚蠢的借口，因?yàn)樗嬲脑蚴窍胱尲幽么蠛湍鞲缜谒囊蟆，F(xiàn)在他和加拿大鬧翻了，真想看看他們會(huì)如何通過征收關(guān)稅或?qū)γ绹隹谠O(shè)置限制來報(bào)復(fù)，哈哈。才過了兩周，事情就已經(jīng)這么混亂了。真想知道接下來的四年會(huì)發(fā)生什么。
likes: 2
Small correction he is infact not ok with China and hit them with a 10% tariff while not as big as Canada and Mexico's whopping 25% is still significant and if his last term is indication most likely trade war 2 is going to hit soon. But you are right that there's a huge personal egotystical angle to all of this. It's not even national security or some Machevillian level realist scheme as Russia wants to destroy the US and sieze their position on the global stage as the new big bad. Trump's leniency towards them is actually bad for the US economically, politically, and even on regards to their security. Yet he's lenient towards them and so are his brain dead followers not realizing that there making the exact same mistake the Brits made with the Prussian except dumber because at least the Prussians while haboring their own ambitions that became imperial Germany were useful against France, where as Russia is blatantly anti US it's so stupid it's almost painful to watch it happen like a bad sitcom when the character is doing something that's so obviously going to blow up in their face in the next scene.
小小地更正一下，他其實(shí)對中國并不友好，并對中國征收了 10%的關(guān)稅，雖然沒有加拿大和墨西哥高達(dá) 25% 的關(guān)稅那么大，但也是很重要的，如果他的上一任期是個(gè)征兆的話，很可能很快就會(huì)爆發(fā)第二次貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。但你說得對，這一切都有巨大的個(gè)人利己主義因素。這甚至不是國家安全問題，或某種馬基雅維利式的現(xiàn)實(shí)主義計(jì)劃，因?yàn)槎砹_斯想要摧毀美國并奪取其在全球舞臺(tái)上的地位，成為新的“大壞蛋”。特朗普對他們的寬容實(shí)際上對美國在經(jīng)濟(jì)、政治甚至安全方面都是不利的。然而，他對他們寬容，他的腦殘追隨者們也對他們寬容，沒有意識(shí)到他們正在犯與英國人對普魯士所犯的完全相同的錯(cuò)誤，而且更加愚蠢，因?yàn)橹辽倨蒸斒繎延凶约旱男坌膲阎?，在成為德意志帝國時(shí)，是有利于英國對抗法國的，而俄羅斯則公然反美，這種情況愚蠢得幾乎讓人痛苦。就像一部糟糕的情景喜劇，角色在做一些顯然會(huì)在下一幕中自食其果的事情。
likes: 1
Canada already imposed 25% tariif over 150bil$ US goods, Mexico will have tariff for US too, so trade war can consider begin. Cant wait to see next 4/2 with new tariff effective what will happens
加拿大已經(jīng)對價(jià)值1500億美元的美國商品征收了25%的關(guān)稅，墨西哥也將對美國商品征收關(guān)稅，因此可以認(rèn)為貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)已經(jīng)開始。迫不及待想看看4月2日新關(guān)稅生效后會(huì)發(fā)生什么了。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.equalizerredsea.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
likes: 3
Trump has an upcoming 1.5B golf course investment in VN.
特朗普即將在越南投資 15 億美元建設(shè)高爾夫球場。
likes: 1
If the tariff levels are distributed relatively evenly among trading partners, the main people getting hurt first will be the American consumers.
Secondary impacts will be on trading partners with tariffs at 10% or above, and again it depends on what that partner exports to the US. Oil producers for one example may feel no impact as its possible that industry may be exempt.
Ultimately, the cost of living as a result of this within the US could cause a revolt among Trumps main voter base (working class & middle class outside the cities).
As a result, I think these tariffs will be temporary and will be wound back within 6 months to a year.
If that doesn't happen, Trump's ineptitude & hubris will put him at risk. Two nutcases have already taken shots at him.
如果關(guān)稅水平在貿(mào)易伙伴之間相對均勻分布，首先受到傷害的主要是美國消費(fèi)者。
其次，受到影響的將是關(guān)稅在10%或以上的貿(mào)易伙伴，這又取決于該伙伴向美國出口什么。例如，石油生產(chǎn)國可能不會(huì)受到影響，因?yàn)樵撔袠I(yè)可能會(huì)被豁免。
最終，這種情況可能導(dǎo)致美國的生活成本上升，從而引發(fā)特朗普主要選民基礎(chǔ)（城市外的工人階級(jí)和中產(chǎn)階級(jí)）的反抗。
因此，我認(rèn)為這些關(guān)稅將是暫時(shí)的，并將在6個(gè)月到1年內(nèi)撤回。
如果這沒有發(fā)生，特朗普的無能和自負(fù)將使他面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。已經(jīng)有兩個(gè)瘋子向他開炮了。
likes: 8
It's not that simple.
The majority of US imports from Vietnam come from independant dealers and traders importing stuffs such as fruits, materials and overseas companies exporting their products made in Vietnam to US.
Meanwhile american goods are simply too expensive to turn a profit from importing in Vietnam unless you are targeting technical stuffs like technologies, cameras, etc... It's going to be extremely hard hence why US even had so many trade deficits with so many countries lol
事情沒那么簡單。
美國從越南進(jìn)口的大部分商品都來自獨(dú)立經(jīng)銷商和貿(mào)易商，他們進(jìn)口水果、原材料等商品，以及在越南生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)品并出口到美國的海外公司。
與此同時(shí)，除非你瞄準(zhǔn)的是技術(shù)產(chǎn)品，比如科技產(chǎn)品、相機(jī)等等，否則美國商品對于在越南進(jìn)口來說實(shí)在太貴了，根本賺不到錢。
這事兒難搞得很，這也是為什么美國和那么多國家都有貿(mào)易逆差的原因，哈哈。
likes: 60
Vietnam may become the next target once Trump realizes that China has already shifted production there to evade tariffs. This strategic relocation, which has already occurred, allows Chinese firms to bypass trade restrictions, but it could prompt the U.S. to impose tariffs on Vietnam as well.
一旦特朗普意識(shí)到中國已經(jīng)將生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到越南以規(guī)避關(guān)稅，越南就可能成為下一個(gè)目標(biāo)。這種戰(zhàn)略轉(zhuǎn)移已經(jīng)發(fā)生，它允許中國企業(yè)繞過貿(mào)易限制，但也可能促使美國對越南征收關(guān)稅。
likes: 7
Very possible, the US already did this for Mexico but I’m suspecting it’s mostly because they already have underlying beef from immigration issues, while Trump haven’t even mentioned VN yet. If he did, Trump would probably make some demands before threatening tariffs tho so that gives us options.
很有可能，美國已經(jīng)對墨西哥采取了這樣的措施，但我懷疑這主要是因?yàn)樗麄冊谝泼駟栴}上已經(jīng)有了潛在的矛盾，而特朗普甚至還沒有提到越南。如果他提到的話，特朗普可能會(huì)在威脅征收關(guān)稅之前提出一些要求，這樣我們就有了選擇。
likes: 25
You think he knows? Come on
你認(rèn)為他有這個(gè)意識(shí)？得了吧。
likes: 1
I mean he hasn't mentioned us yet so... Mayve he just doesn't care? The EU seems like the next target.
我的意思是他還沒有提到我們，所以……也許他根本不在乎？歐盟似乎是下一個(gè)目標(biāo)。
likes: 34
Majority of VNese who support Trump applaud his anti-Chinese rhetoric. Having more Chinese businesses move to Vietnam is ironic, no?
大多數(shù)支持特朗普的越南人對他的反華言論表示贊賞。更多中國企業(yè)遷往越南，這不是很諷刺嗎？
likes: 14
Anti-Chinese rhetoric is just one of the reasons that Vietnamese is supporting Trump.
Majority of Vietnamese are just seeing him as an alpha male billionaire with supermodel wife's that fit their imagination of success. Recently I have heard someone praised Trump for being a very good father his sons and daughters.
反華言論只是越南人支持特朗普的原因之一。
在大多數(shù)越南人眼中，特朗普是一個(gè)擁有超級(jí)名模妻子的億萬富翁，符合他們對成功的想象。最近，我聽到有人稱贊特朗普是一個(gè)很好的父親，他的兒子和女兒都很優(yōu)秀。
likes: 1
Most of Vietnamese have no clue of what Trump represent. They are very uneducated at least on politics
大多數(shù)越南人都不知道特朗普代表什么。至少在政治方面，他們是非常缺乏教育的。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.equalizerredsea.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
likes: 33
Hard to say, seems like any connection to China could lead to tariffs.
很難說，似乎任何與中國的聯(lián)系都可能導(dǎo)致關(guān)稅。
likes: 43
Any country that exists is currently at risk of Trump’s tariffs
任何國家目前都面臨特朗普關(guān)稅的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.equalizerredsea.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
likes: 15
Can he put a tariff on the US? lol jokes
他能對美國征收關(guān)稅嗎？
likes: 24
Wouldn't surprise me if he tried to put tariffs on California or something
如果他想對加利福尼亞州征收關(guān)稅什么的，我也不會(huì)感到驚訝。
likes: 4
Technically he can, if you tariff a county and they tariff back as a trade war, he would be tariffing himself by proxy.
從技術(shù)上講，他可以這樣做，如果你對一個(gè)國家征收關(guān)稅，而他們以貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的方式進(jìn)行反制，那么他實(shí)際上是在間接地對自己征收關(guān)稅。
likes: 34
This is all such a knee jerk shitshow that the markets will crash before Vietnam has any time to react or adjust.
So don't count on it.
這完全就是一場毫無章法的瞎折騰，市場崩盤的速度會(huì)比越南做出反應(yīng)或調(diào)整的時(shí)間還快。
所以，別指望越南能從中獲利。
likes: 21
This is the right answer. We are heading towards a global economic and societal collapse that even Vietnam is going to feel to varying degrees. There are few winners here if any at the end of the day, especially if we head into WW3.
這話說得對。我們正走向全球性的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)崩潰，即使是越南也會(huì)受到不同程度的影響。到頭來，就算有贏家，也不會(huì)多，特別是如果我們真的打起世界大戰(zhàn)。
likes: 1
Fully agree. And ww3 probably means we're going to join China, voluntary or not.
完全同意。而且世界大戰(zhàn)很可能意味著我們要和中國站在一起，不管我們愿不愿意。
likes: 41
trump is unpredictable with his braindead policies, you can never know if he will hit VN with tariffs next. but as always, when china gets hit with tariff, they usually outsource the backend production to vietnam, let vietnamese workers do the last 1% of the products and slap "made in Vietnam" on them to avoid tariff. in the short term, this means more jobs for workers, but at the same time vietnamese economy can become more reliant on china
特朗普的政策簡直是腦殘，完全無法預(yù)測，你永遠(yuǎn)不知道他下一步會(huì)不會(huì)對越南下手。但通常來說，中國一旦被加征關(guān)稅，他們就會(huì)把后面的生產(chǎn)外包給越南，讓越南工人做最后1%的活兒，然后貼上“越南制造”的標(biāo)簽來規(guī)避關(guān)稅。短期來看，這能給越南工人帶來更多工作機(jī)會(huì)，但同時(shí)也會(huì)讓越南經(jīng)濟(jì)更加依賴中國。
likes: 6
The thing is that he’s not just hitting China with tariffs, he’s planning on hitting the EU, Mexico, Canada, etc… so multiple foreign companies in general is gonna flock to Vietnam. So I don’t think it would give China a “monopoly” persay
問題是，他不僅僅針對中國征收關(guān)稅，他還計(jì)劃打擊歐盟、墨西哥、加拿大等等……所以總的來說，很多外國公司都會(huì)涌入越南。所以我認(rèn)為這并不會(huì)讓中國獲得“壟斷”地位。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.equalizerredsea.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
likes: 7
The problem with your thesis is that:
1. Vietnam is already a major beneficiary of China+1. So a lot of growth has already been realized.
2. Vietnam does not have the infrastructure or workforce to serve as an immediate replacement for goods in all the markets affected.
3. Trump is unpredictable and could do anything at any time. He particularly likes to pick on countries that have large trade surpluses with the US, and countries that would have limited options for retaliation. Vietnam has both.
4. Trump [has already made statements about Vietnam](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-threatens-vietnam-which-has-been-benefiting-from-us-tariffs-on-china-2019-06-26), including "Well, a lot of companies are moving to Vietnam, but Vietnam takes advantage of us even worse than China" and "Vietnam is almost the single worst – much smaller than China, much, but it’s almost the single worst abuser of everybody."
你的論點(diǎn)的問題在于：
1. 越南已經(jīng)是“中國+1”的主要受益者。因此，很多增長已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)了。
2. 越南沒有基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施或勞動(dòng)力來立即取代所有受影響市場的商品。
3. 特朗普難以預(yù)測，隨時(shí)可能做出任何事情。他尤其喜歡找那些與美國有巨額貿(mào)易順差的國家和報(bào)復(fù)手段有限的國家下手。越南兩個(gè)特點(diǎn)都有。
3. 特朗普已經(jīng)發(fā)表過關(guān)于越南的言論，包括“好吧，很多公司都在向越南轉(zhuǎn)移，但越南占我們的便宜比中國還厲害”和“越南幾乎是唯一最糟糕的——比中國小得多得多，但它幾乎是唯一最糟糕的虐待者”。
likes: 4
China will shift more productions to VN to evade tariff and also fucking up local pricing as the same time, they’ve been doing this for years
中國將把更多產(chǎn)品轉(zhuǎn)移到越南，以規(guī)避關(guān)稅，同時(shí)抬高當(dāng)?shù)囟▋r(jià)，他們這樣做已經(jīng)很多年了。
likes: 6
Trump team has already commented on this, they said tariff on Vietnam will depend on whether Vietnam is on "US team or China team", loosely quoted.
So far Vietnam has given very strong signals like sending Vietjet's CEO to meet Trump and Musk with an agreement to buy 200 Boeings and building two more LNG power plant slated to join the national grid in February 4th. The Foreign minister has also said that transparency in trades going in and out the country will be a very high priority from now on.
Vietnam knows tariff will wreak havoc on its economy that's why it has taken many preemptive steps like the above and many more to come in the next 4 years.
特朗普團(tuán)隊(duì)已經(jīng)對此發(fā)表了評論，他們說，對越南征收關(guān)稅將取決于越南是站在 "美國隊(duì)還是中國隊(duì) "一邊。
到目前為止，越南已經(jīng)發(fā)出了非常強(qiáng)烈的信號(hào)，比如派 Vietjet 的首席執(zhí)行官與特朗普和馬斯克會(huì)面，并達(dá)成了購買 200 架波音飛機(jī)的協(xié)議以及建設(shè)兩座計(jì)劃于2月4日并入國家電網(wǎng)的液化天然氣發(fā)電廠。越南外長還表示，從現(xiàn)在起，進(jìn)出越南的貿(mào)易透明度將成為重中之重。
越南深知關(guān)稅將對其經(jīng)濟(jì)造成嚴(yán)重破壞，因此采取了許多預(yù)防措施，如上述措施，并將在未來 4 年內(nèi)采取更多措施。
likes: 4
Lel. If Trump pushes VN into a corner, VN will fall into China's side. Let's hope he won't go that far.
China is still a neighbour, and the US has a tendency to leave when they get bored.
哈哈。如果特朗普把越南逼到絕境，越南就會(huì)倒向中國。希望他不會(huì)走到那一步。中國始終是鄰國，而美國往往會(huì)在無法攫取利益時(shí)選擇離開。
likes: 2
Every country will eventually get a turn, unless trump gets a personal benefit.
Best thing vietnam can do is tell trump it’s on his side, and discretely give him some benefit, like a piece of land for a golf course development. Small price to pay.
每個(gè)國家最終都會(huì)輪到自己，除非特朗普能獲得個(gè)人利益。
越南能做的最好事情就是告訴特朗普它站在他這一邊，并且私下給他一些好處，比如一塊用于高爾夫球場開發(fā)的土地。這是一個(gè)很小的代價(jià)。
likes: 2
Don't worry, our PM Pham Minh Chinh already said that he will play golf with Trump like Abe did, we are safe thanks to golf diplomacy
別擔(dān)心，我國總理范明正已經(jīng)表示，他將像安倍晉三一樣與特朗普打高爾夫球，有了高爾夫外交，我們就安全了
likes: 1
No. Trump wants to reindustrialise, can't do it if Chinese factories move to VN and keep sending stuff to the US.
He has targeted VN in the past as a "currency manipulator" specifically, no reason to believe he won't now.
Trump will find a reason to put tariffs on Vietnam (not using USD with China and Russia, trade surplus, currency, the works) and we won't be able to do much about it because he ultimately wants protectionism.
不，特朗普想要實(shí)現(xiàn)再工業(yè)化，但如果中國工廠遷往越南并繼續(xù)向美國輸送貨物，就無法實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)。
他過去曾專門把越南作為 "匯率操縱國"，沒有理由相信他現(xiàn)在不會(huì)這樣做。
特朗普會(huì)找理由對越南征收關(guān)稅（不與中國和俄羅斯使用美元、貿(mào)易順差、貨幣，等等），而我們對此無能為力，因?yàn)樗罱K想要的是保護(hù)主義。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.equalizerredsea.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
likes: 1
Vietnam has huge problems because of extremely high shipping costs and logistics. Shipping costs from Vietnam to the USA are beyond crazy compared to shipping from China.
越南的問題很大，因?yàn)檫\(yùn)輸成本和物流成本極高。與從中國發(fā)貨相比，從越南到美國的運(yùn)費(fèi)簡直是天文數(shù)字。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.equalizerredsea.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
likes: 2
Those factories are not going to America, not just because of the costs but also the fact that most Americans hate factory jobs, you know, working on an assembling line.
那些工廠不會(huì)搬到美國，不只是因?yàn)槌杀締栴}，還因?yàn)榇蠖鄶?shù)美國人都不喜歡在工廠工作，你知道的，就是在流水線上干活。
likes: 1
Yup I 100% agree. This will not work.
是的，我 100% 同意。這行不通。
likes: 1
More like factory owners hate paying workers a living wage.
更準(zhǔn)確的說法是，工廠老板們不愿意給工人支付足夠維持生計(jì)的工資。
likes: -5
Vietnam economy already rock bottom. If this tariff hits it’s gonna be a bad time.
越南經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)跌到谷底了。如果再來這么一出關(guān)稅，那可就真要遭殃了。
likes: 3
What do you mean rock bottom? Vietnam had a 7.09% GDP growth for 2024 and already hit over $500 billion nominal GDP.
越南2024年的GDP增長率可是達(dá)到了7.09%，而且名義GDP也已經(jīng)超過了5000億美元。
likes: 1
Rock bottom is a bit too much, I would say the economy is not doing well.
跌至谷底也太夸張了吧，我覺得應(yīng)該說經(jīng)濟(jì)不太景氣。