QA：過去，類似的高關(guān)稅曾為美國帶來繁榮?，F(xiàn)在，美國能通過提高關(guān)稅來創(chuàng)造同樣的繁榮嗎？“歷史證明，對加劇蕭條特別有效”
Similar high tariffs have proved prosperous for the US in the past. Can the US create the same prosperity with higher tariffs?
譯文簡介
<<諷刺警告>> 是的，過去所有的高關(guān)稅確實(shí)幫助了美國人<<諷刺停止>>
正文翻譯
Similar high tariffs have proved prosperous for the US in the past. Can the US create the same prosperity with higher tariffs?
過去，類似的高關(guān)稅曾為美國帶來繁榮。現(xiàn)在，美國能通過提高關(guān)稅來創(chuàng)造同樣的繁榮嗎？
過去，類似的高關(guān)稅曾為美國帶來繁榮。現(xiàn)在，美國能通過提高關(guān)稅來創(chuàng)造同樣的繁榮嗎？
評論翻譯
很贊 ( 8 )
收藏
From the civil war to World War 2, US had a high tariff wall. This done because US was a developing country in the 19th century and was protecting its native industry against lower cost competition from Europe. Back then the large size of the USA and its unified open market meant companies could operate on comparatively higher economies of scale. But today economies of scale are much larger due to the globalization of the economy since the last capitalist crisis in the 1970s. Altho only about 24 percent of US GDP is based on trade, it would still be a hugely damaging result to try for complete autarky — which seems the logical result of Trump’s tariffs
He is making the mistake Hoover made in 1930 with the Smoot-Hawley tariff wall. It contracted world trade — as Trump’s tariffs will do — and thus made the depression worse.
Trump touts the Gilded Age of the 1890s with its tariff wall. He fails to keep in mind there was another Great Depression in the 1890s. My great grandparents’ farm was seized by the banks.
The 1920s boom did occur with a fairly high tariff, but it was a boom grounded in sand — real estate speculation, oil speculation, stock speculation. And when Hoover tried to deal with the 1929 crash with the Smoot Hawley tariff, the results were disastrous.
從內(nèi)戰(zhàn)到第二次世界大戰(zhàn)，美國一直都設(shè)有高關(guān)稅壁壘。之所以這樣做，是因?yàn)槊绹?19 世紀(jì)是一個(gè)發(fā)展中國家，需要保護(hù)其本土產(chǎn)業(yè)免受來自歐洲的低成本競爭。
當(dāng)時(shí)，美國規(guī)模龐大，市場統(tǒng)一開放，這意味著公司可以以相對較高的規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行運(yùn)營。
但如今，由于自 20 世紀(jì) 70 年代上次資本主義危機(jī)以來的經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化，規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)的規(guī)模變得非常大。
雖然美國 GDP 中只有約 24% 是基于貿(mào)易的，但試圖完全自給自足仍將是一個(gè)極具破壞性的結(jié)果——這似乎是特朗普關(guān)稅的合理結(jié)果。
他正在犯胡佛在 1930 年犯下的錯(cuò)誤，即斯穆特霍利關(guān)稅壁壘。它收縮了世界貿(mào)易——就像特朗普的關(guān)稅一樣——從而使大蕭條變得更加嚴(yán)重。
特朗普吹捧 19 世紀(jì) 90 年代的鍍金時(shí)代，稱其為關(guān)稅壁壘。他沒有記住 19 世紀(jì) 90 年代還發(fā)生了一場大蕭條。就是那時(shí)，我曾祖父母的農(nóng)場被銀行沒收了。
20 世紀(jì) 20 年代的繁榮確實(shí)伴隨著相當(dāng)高的關(guān)稅，但那是一種以沙子為基礎(chǔ)的繁榮——房地產(chǎn)投機(jī)、石油投機(jī)、股票投機(jī)。當(dāng)胡佛試圖用斯穆特霍利關(guān)稅來應(yīng)對 1929 年的危機(jī)時(shí)，結(jié)果是災(zāi)難性的。
You know, I am sick of maga. Yes… tariffs will make us all rich. Everything is going to be fucking fantastic
你知道的，我厭倦了MAGA。是的……關(guān)稅會(huì)讓我們所有人都變得富有。一切都會(huì)變得非常棒。
A lot of farmers banded together to keep the banks from taking the farms. The farmer whose farm was up for auction was the only one allowed to bid on his farm at auction. The farmers kept all the other bidders away
那時(shí)，許多農(nóng)民聯(lián)合起來阻止銀行接管農(nóng)場。農(nóng)場被拍賣的農(nóng)民，是唯一被允許在拍賣會(huì)上競標(biāo)其農(nóng)場的人。農(nóng)民們把其他所有競標(biāo)者都攔在門外面。
Seriously? “Similar high tariffs have proved prosperous”. “The same prosperity”>
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 was supposed to Make America Great Again (TM) by limiting imports.
The consequences were utterly predictable to anyone: Other countries retaliated with their own tariffs, international trade was devastated, and the Great Depression became even Greater.
The Smoot-Hawley tariff on Canadian eggs is still a textbook case of protectionist folly.
The US imposed a tariff of 10 cents per dozen on Canadian eggs. A lot of money in those days. What did Canada do? Canada imposed the same tariff on US eggs.
Here’s the problem. In 1929, the trade in eggs was overwhelming to the benefit of the US
Canadian egg exports to the US in 1929 – 13,000 dozen. By 1932, exports had dropped to 8,000 dozen. A win for the US, right?
Ah ... WRONG: US exports to Canada in 1929 – nearly 1 million dozen eggs. In 1932, thanks to Smoot-Hawley, US egg exports to Canada had dropped to less than 10,000 dozen.
So American farmers were the big losers on that one.
yeah all those past high tariffs really helped Americans
真的嗎？
“類似的高關(guān)稅曾為美國帶來繁榮”?！巴瑯拥姆睒s”。
1930 年的斯穆特霍利關(guān)稅本應(yīng)通過限制進(jìn)口讓美國再次偉大
任何人都可以完全預(yù)見到其后果：其他國家以自己的關(guān)稅進(jìn)行報(bào)復(fù)，國際貿(mào)易遭到破壞，大蕭條進(jìn)一步加劇。
斯穆特霍利對加拿大的雞蛋征收關(guān)稅，到現(xiàn)在仍然是保護(hù)主義愚蠢行為的典型案例。
美國對加拿大雞蛋征收每打 10 美分的關(guān)稅。這在當(dāng)時(shí)是一大筆錢。
加拿大做了什么？加拿大對美國雞蛋征收了同樣的關(guān)稅。
這就是問題所在。
1929 年，雞蛋貿(mào)易勢不可擋，美國從中受益匪淺。
1929 年加拿大雞蛋對美國的出口量為 13,000 打。到 1932 年，出口量下降到 8,000 打。美國贏了，對吧？
啊……錯(cuò)了：1929 年美國對加拿大的出口量——近 100 萬打雞蛋。1932 年，由于斯穆特霍利關(guān)稅法案，美國對加拿大的雞蛋出口量下降到不到 1 萬打。
所以美國農(nóng)民是最大的輸家。
是的，過去所有的高關(guān)稅確實(shí)幫助了美國人
The USA could always import Penguin Eggs from Heard Island in the Antarctic but they’ll have to pay the Penguins the 10% tarriff
美國可以隨時(shí)從南極洲的赫德島進(jìn)口企鵝蛋，但他們必須向企鵝支付 10% 的關(guān)稅
And don’t forget soybean farming last time.
還有，別忘記上次的大豆事件。
Well the (used to be), GOP is advising we should all buys stocks while they are tanking.
嗯，（過去）共和黨建議我們都應(yīng)該在股票下跌時(shí)買入。
And now they want our eggs.
還有，現(xiàn)在他們想要我們的雞蛋了。
States need money. So they levy taxes. In the days of yore, accounting was difficult, as a lot of the economy did not use money. So the amount of tax you had to pay depended on things easily seen and measured. Like the size of your house, goods you bring to a market, the land you own, your existence.
The good thing about tariffs was that people transporting goods were usually pretty rich, and you could estimate the money they owned by looking at some carts or a ship, you didn't have to check their books.
There are two bad things about tariffs. The first is that it stifles trade. Which was particularly bad in a fragmented region like Germany.
國家需要錢。所以他們征稅。在過去，會(huì)計(jì)工作很困難，因?yàn)榻?jīng)濟(jì)的很多方面都不使用貨幣交易。所以你必須繳納的稅款取決于容易看到和衡量的事物。比如你房子的大小、你帶到市場的商品、你擁有的土地、你實(shí)際擁有的東西。
關(guān)稅的好處是，運(yùn)輸貨物的人通常都很富有，你可以通過查看一些手推車或船只來估計(jì)他們擁有的錢，而不必檢查他們的賬簿。
關(guān)稅有兩個(gè)壞處。第一，它扼殺了貿(mào)易。這在德國這樣一個(gè)分裂的地區(qū)尤其糟糕。
Which why in 1834 the “Norddeutscher Zollverein” was founded, probably the first multinational free trade agreement. The economic advantages were so huge that even when in 1866 Bavaria sided with Austria in the war against Prussia, the trade agreements were not cancelled.
The Zollverein was one of the main reasons Germany turned from a poor backwater into an industrial power house within 50 years.
“我沒什么可申報(bào)的。前面的貨物已經(jīng)離開了你的國家，后面的貨物還沒有進(jìn)入?！?br /> 這就是為什么 1834 年成立了“北德意志關(guān)稅同盟”的原因，這可能是第一個(gè)跨國自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定。經(jīng)濟(jì)優(yōu)勢如此巨大，以至于即使在 1866 年巴伐利亞在與普魯士的戰(zhàn)爭中站在了奧地利一邊，貿(mào)易協(xié)定也沒有被取消。
關(guān)稅同盟是德國在 50 年內(nèi)從貧窮的窮鄉(xiāng)僻壤變成工業(yè)強(qiáng)國的主要原因之一。
So why do we still have tariffs? There is a prisoner's dilemma involved. If the import of eggs is taxed, both the importing and the exporting state lose. But producers of eggs only serving the local market profit. You do not harass your government about a measure that would save everyone a very small amount of money. But you do harass the government about a measure that essentially makes everyone pay a little money to a very small group you belong to. Because for you these small amounts add up to a considerable part of your income. So today tariffs are an indicator of cronyism. And cronyism is difficult to destroy if their proponents are as influential as e.g. agriculture.
另一個(gè)問題是關(guān)稅具有很強(qiáng)的周期性。貿(mào)易受經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢的影響特別大。特別是在戰(zhàn)爭時(shí)期，當(dāng)國家最需要錢的時(shí)候，國家因?yàn)殛P(guān)稅帶來的收入就會(huì)急劇下降。這就是為什么國家從關(guān)稅轉(zhuǎn)向其他更穩(wěn)定的收入來源的原因。
那么為什么我們?nèi)匀挥嘘P(guān)稅呢？這涉及到囚徒困境。如果對雞蛋的進(jìn)口征稅，進(jìn)口國和出口國都會(huì)蒙受損失。但只服務(wù)于當(dāng)?shù)厥袌龅碾u蛋生產(chǎn)商卻能獲利。
如果有一項(xiàng)措施，可以讓每個(gè)人都節(jié)省一小筆錢，你不會(huì)為此去騷擾你的政府。
但如果有一項(xiàng)措施，它會(huì)讓每個(gè)人都多支付一小筆錢，你就會(huì)為此去騷擾政府。因?yàn)閷δ銇碚f，這些小錢加起來是你收入的很大一部分。
所以今天的關(guān)稅是裙帶關(guān)系的指標(biāo)。如果裙帶關(guān)系的支持者像農(nóng)業(yè)一樣有影響力，那么裙帶關(guān)系就很難被消除。
There have been three depressions in the USA, two in the 1800’s and the Great Depression that started in 1929, they all have one thing in common, they were preceded by tariffs. Rather strangely Trump referred to The Great Depression in his speech introducing his tariffs, maybe he want’s another depression, he’s certainly going about it the right way.
美國經(jīng)歷過三次大蕭條，兩次發(fā)生在 19 世紀(jì)，還有一次大蕭條始于 1929 年，它們都有一個(gè)共同點(diǎn)，那就是之前都征收了關(guān)稅。
奇怪的是，特朗普在介紹關(guān)稅的演講中提到了大蕭條，也許他想要另一次大蕭條，他肯定是在用正確的方式應(yīng)對。
I’m not crazy about what Trump is doing, but your comment ignores the fact that before the Great Depression the United States was the largest EXPORTER of goods, and today we are the largest IMPORTER of goods. And there are certain industries that a country must retain, in order to remain free from foreign coercion. We simply cannot allow ourselves to be utterly dependent upon Red China, for instance. I don’t understand the stance on Canada, but I at least partially agree with some of the issues Trump is attempting to address.
我并不贊同特朗普的做法，但你的評論忽略了一個(gè)事實(shí)：在那些大蕭條時(shí)期，美國是最大的商品出口國，而今天我們是最大的商品進(jìn)口國。
為了免受外國脅迫，一個(gè)國家必須保留某些行業(yè)。
例如，我們不能讓自己完全依賴紅色中國。
我不理解特朗普對加拿大的立場，但我至少部分同意特朗普試圖解決的一些問題。
The US is also currently the second largest exporter of goods.
美國目前也是第二大商品出口國。
But we're in luck, our strong Leader will fix it all for us! The Leader is always right! Greet the Leader!
但我們很幸運(yùn)，我們強(qiáng)大的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者會(huì)為我們解決所有問題！領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者永遠(yuǎn)是對的！向領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者致敬！狗頭。
When the EU retaliates I think it will go for the American tech and services industry. That will hurt the US far more than going after American manufacturing!
我認(rèn)為，歐盟報(bào)復(fù)時(shí)會(huì)瞄準(zhǔn)美國的科技和服務(wù)業(yè)。這對美國的傷害遠(yuǎn)大于瞄準(zhǔn)美國的制造業(yè)！
Strange, I thought that by having strong trade with many countries stability would be created. Businesses/economies theive when a level of stability is achieved long term. Trump is causing instability and causing Allie’s to not twist and no longer buy from the U.S. nothing good can come of this.
奇怪的是，我以為通過與許多國家進(jìn)行強(qiáng)大的貿(mào)易可以創(chuàng)造穩(wěn)定。當(dāng)長期實(shí)現(xiàn)一定程度的穩(wěn)定時(shí)，企業(yè)/經(jīng)濟(jì)就會(huì)受益。特朗普正在造成不穩(wěn)定，導(dǎo)致盟友不再從美國購買商品，這不會(huì)帶來任何好處。
So tariffs will make Trump richer but America poorer.
因此，關(guān)稅將使特朗普變得更富有，但美國變得更貧窮。
A very sound economic argument against tariffs.
這是一個(gè)反對關(guān)稅的非常合理的經(jīng)濟(jì)論點(diǎn)。
Out here in consensus reality, similar high tariffs have proved disastrous for the US in the past.
The US can certainly create the same sort of disaster with higher tariffs.
在普遍的現(xiàn)實(shí)中，類似的高關(guān)稅在過去已經(jīng)給美國帶來了災(zāi)難。
美國提高關(guān)稅肯定會(huì)造成同樣的災(zāi)難。
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act did not cause the Great Depression. However, it did worsen conditions during that time. The Act increased tariffs, which further stressed struggling nations—including those in debt to the U.S.—and caused other nations to retaliate by imposing their own tariffs.
《斯穆特霍利關(guān)稅法》并未導(dǎo)致大蕭條。然而，它確實(shí)惡化了當(dāng)時(shí)的情況。該法案提高了關(guān)稅，這進(jìn)一步加重了陷入困境的國家（包括欠美國債務(wù)的國家）的壓力，并導(dǎo)致其他國家通過征收關(guān)稅進(jìn)行報(bào)復(fù)。
Adam Smith wrote “the Wealth of Nations” 117 days before the brilliant thinking liberal founding fathers of the USA made the Declaration of Independance on July 4th 1776. His idea and vision was clear : Nations should specialize in what they produce best (what we now call comparative advantage), and trade for the rest. Tariffs (taxes on imports) mess with that natural flow by protecting inefficient industries.
Entire libraries have been written about the subject, and universities have taught courses on it for centuries.
Now one madman thinks he's smarter than all of history. With an algorithm no better than rolling dice, he's imposing tariffs that fly in the face of centuries of hard-won economic wisdom. It's a joke. It's a shame.
亞當(dāng)·斯密，美國杰出的自由主義開國元?jiǎng)?，他?776年7月4日，發(fā)表《獨(dú)立宣言》前的117天，寫下了《國富論》。
他的想法和愿景是明確的：各國應(yīng)該專注于他們最擅長的產(chǎn)品（我們現(xiàn)在稱之為比較優(yōu)勢），并為其他產(chǎn)品進(jìn)行貿(mào)易。
關(guān)稅（進(jìn)口稅）保護(hù)的是低效產(chǎn)業(yè)，擾亂了這種自然流動(dòng)。
整個(gè)圖書館到處都是關(guān)于這個(gè)主題的文章，大學(xué)也教授了幾個(gè)世紀(jì)這方面的課程。
現(xiàn)在，一個(gè)瘋子認(rèn)為他比歷史上任何人都聰明。憑借一種比擲骰子好不了多少的算法，他要征收的關(guān)稅，與幾個(gè)世紀(jì)來之不易的經(jīng)濟(jì)智慧做背道而馳的事情。
這是個(gè)笑話。真是遺憾。
“in the past” is a period that’s undefined. Please explain what time period you mean.
“過去” 是一個(gè)未定義的時(shí)間段。請解釋一下你指的是哪個(gè)時(shí)間段。
I would suggest that tariffs work with cottage industries, manufacturing that can be taken up or put down with minimal time or financial investment.
So in some minor ways, like growing apples, tariffs may still, just about, work.
But once manufacturing required significant time, money and training investment, tariffs don’t work. So not so effective in steel manufacturing for instance.
我認(rèn)為關(guān)稅適用于家庭手工業(yè)，就是那些可以用最少的時(shí)間、最少的金錢就可以進(jìn)行投資并建立或停止的小制造業(yè)。
因此，在某些小領(lǐng)域，比如種植蘋果，關(guān)稅可能仍然有效。
但是，一旦涉及到那些需要大量的時(shí)間、金錢和培訓(xùn)投資的大制造業(yè)，關(guān)稅就不起作用了。例如，在鋼鐵制造業(yè)中效果就不是那么好。
Both the depressions in the US were caused by imposing tariffs, but tRump thinks his tariffs will make the US prosperous, he’s am absolute idiot and the US population is going to pay the price for his idiocy.
美國的兩次經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條都是由征收關(guān)稅引起的，但特朗普認(rèn)為他的關(guān)稅會(huì)讓美國繁榮，他是個(gè)十足的白癡，美國人民將為他的愚蠢付出代價(jià)。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.equalizerredsea.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請注明出處
The Economist, hardly a left-wing publication, which over the last few months was guardedly optimistic about Trump’s second term, has now lost patience with him. A few quotes from this week’s editorial about Trump’s justification of his tariffs, under the title Ruination Day:
“complete drivel”
“the most profound, harmful and unnecessary economic error in the modern era”
“mindless vandalism”
“utterly deluded”
“flat-out nonsense”
“Insisting on balanced trade with every trading partner individually is bonkers”
“Mr Trump’s grasp of the technicalities was pathetic”
“catalogue of foolishness”
All that and more on one page.
《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》絕不是左翼刊物，在過去幾個(gè)月里，它對特朗普的第二任期持謹(jǐn)慎樂觀的態(tài)度，但現(xiàn)在卻對他失去了耐心。
本周的社論以《毀滅日》為題，對特朗普關(guān)稅的評價(jià)的幾句話如下：
“一派胡言”
“現(xiàn)代史上最深刻、最有害、最不必要的經(jīng)濟(jì)錯(cuò)誤”
“盲目的破壞”
“完全是自欺欺人”
“徹頭徹尾的胡說”
“堅(jiān)持與每個(gè)貿(mào)易伙伴進(jìn)行平衡貿(mào)易是瘋了”
“特朗普對技術(shù)細(xì)節(jié)的掌握太差勁了”
“愚蠢至極”
所有這些，甚至更多，都寫在了這一頁上。
Can you give me a specific instance where tariffs have proved prosperous for the US?
I know that we put a heavy tariff on Canadian soft wood, and have for decades, to protect the US logging industry.
But that is about the only one I can think of.
The last big round of tariffs happened in the midst of the Great depression and were highly effective at prolonging and deepening the Great Depression.
So could you educate me and give me an example of what tariffs you are talking about?
您能舉一個(gè)關(guān)稅給美國帶來好處的具體例子嗎？
我知道，為了保護(hù)美國伐木業(yè)，我們對加拿大軟木征收了高額關(guān)稅，而且已經(jīng)實(shí)施了幾十年。
但我能想到的只有這個(gè)例子。
上一輪大規(guī)模關(guān)稅發(fā)生在大蕭條期間，對延長和加深大蕭條非常有效。
您能給我舉個(gè)例子，說明您說的關(guān)稅是什么嗎？
You really are as stupid as your cult leader, Comrade Krasnov. You also had a very very poor education. When someone is as stupid are you clearly are it is usually best not make comments to avoid looking like such an idiot. You really need to brush up your knowledge of the 1929 depression - the U.S. is heading exactly in that direction now. Krasnov is a pathological liar, and you are so stupid that you simply believe his lies. Tariffs will cause huge economic damage, exactly as they did in the 1929 depression. This is easy to verify. A simple Google search would do it. Stop believing his lies. The tariffs will not lead to great prosperity. Why do you think Wall Street is collapsing.
I am sorry your parents and teachers failed to provide you with an acceptable education.
譯注：2月21日,英國《鏡報(bào)》刊文,指控特朗普在1987年被蘇聯(lián)克格勃招募,代號“克拉斯諾夫”。
你真的和你的邪教領(lǐng)袖克拉斯諾夫同志一樣愚蠢。你的教育水平也很差。
當(dāng)有人和你一樣愚蠢時(shí)，最好不要發(fā)表評論，以免看起來像個(gè)白癡。
你真的需要復(fù)習(xí)一下關(guān)于 1929 年大蕭條的知識(shí)——美國現(xiàn)在正朝著那個(gè)方向發(fā)展。
克拉斯諾夫是個(gè)病態(tài)的騙子，你太愚蠢了，竟然相信他的謊言。
關(guān)稅將造成巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失，就像 1929 年的大蕭條時(shí)一樣。這很容易驗(yàn)證。一個(gè)簡單的谷歌搜索就可以做到。別再相信他的謊言了。關(guān)稅不會(huì)帶來巨大的繁榮。你認(rèn)為華爾街為什么會(huì)崩潰。我很遺憾你的父母和老師未能為你提供可接受的教育。
Do you know why the depression in the 1930s was called the “Great Depression”? Because it was being compared to all the depressions that came before it. Depressions used to be a common occurrence in the 19th century (1800s). There are many arguments why they happened then and not since WW2, but one common feature: depressions only happened when tariffs were high. So that might be worth considering.
你知道為什么 1930 年的蕭條被稱為“大蕭條”嗎？
因?yàn)樗荒脕砼c之前的所有蕭條作比較，它非常大。
蕭條在 19 世紀(jì)（1800 年代）很常見。
有很多理由可以解釋為什么它們在當(dāng)時(shí)發(fā)生，而不是在二戰(zhàn)后發(fā)生，但有一個(gè)共同點(diǎn)：蕭條只發(fā)生在關(guān)稅高的時(shí)候。
所以這可能是值得思考的。