You Should Think About Replacing Your iPhone — Now

你該考慮換掉iPhone了——立刻馬上


Will your next iPhone cost $2,000? More? The answer to that question — and the future of America’s wealthiest company and our imperiled financial markets — rests on one man with a very tricky task.

下一代iPhone會(huì)賣(mài)2000美元？更貴？這個(gè)問(wèn)題的答案——連同美國(guó)最富有公司的命運(yùn)及岌岌可危的金融市場(chǎng)——都系于一位肩負(fù)棘手任務(wù)的人。

Steve Jobs might have been the visionary who made touch-screen phones a reality, but it was the operational genius and savvy statesmanship of Tim Cook, his low-key successor, that sent Apple’s revenues and its stock price into the stratosphere. His triumph in fending off Donald Trump’s first-term threats was not without cost, however: By flattering Mr. Trump with attention while making little to no changes to Apple’s China ties, Mr. Cook played the president for the fool.

史蒂夫·喬布斯或許是實(shí)現(xiàn)觸屏手機(jī)愿景的先驅(qū)，但讓蘋(píng)果營(yíng)收和股價(jià)一飛沖天的，是低調(diào)繼任者蒂姆·庫(kù)克的運(yùn)營(yíng)天賦與精明政治手腕。然而他抵擋特朗普首任期威脅的勝利并非沒(méi)有代價(jià)：通過(guò)殷勤奉承卻幾乎不改變蘋(píng)果在華布局，庫(kù)克把總統(tǒng)當(dāng)傻子耍。

Now Mr. Trump is back in the White House, and he has slapped China with tariffs so high that they present a major threat to Apple’s hammerlock on the smartphone market. It’s clearly going to be harder for Mr. Cook to pull off the same trick. If he fails — and most bet he will — it could be a huge blow to his company, to the stock market and to our broader economy.

如今特朗普重返白宮，對(duì)中國(guó)加征的關(guān)稅之高已威脅到蘋(píng)果對(duì)智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)的壟斷。庫(kù)克故技重施顯然會(huì)更困難。若他失敗——多數(shù)人押注會(huì)失敗——將對(duì)蘋(píng)果公司、股市乃至整體經(jīng)濟(jì)造成重創(chuàng)。

Let’s start with a sense of the stakes. Apple has largely been the world’s most valuable company since 2011, and until Mr. Trump’s tariff threats, it was worth around 8 percent of the entire S&P 500. If your retirement is invested in index funds, Apple is your single biggest investment. It’s so enormous that merely issuing a quarterly profit warning, as the company did in early 2019, rattled global financial markets.

先看利害關(guān)系。自2011年起蘋(píng)果基本穩(wěn)居全球市值榜首，在特朗普關(guān)稅威脅前約占標(biāo)普500總市值8%。若你的退休金投資指數(shù)基金，蘋(píng)果就是你最大的單項(xiàng)投資。其體量之巨，僅2019年初發(fā)布盈利預(yù)警就震動(dòng)全球金融市場(chǎng)。

Then let’s turn to the fact that moving production to the United States — the stated goal of Mr. Trump’s extreme tariff regime — is almost impossible for Apple. China is home to roughly 90 percent of Apple’s global production, and it’s the only country where Apple has made such extraordinary investments in people, machinery and processes over a quarter-century.

再看事實(shí)：將生產(chǎn)遷回美國(guó)——特朗普極端關(guān)稅政策的目標(biāo)——對(duì)蘋(píng)果幾乎不可能。中國(guó)承載蘋(píng)果約90%全球產(chǎn)量，是蘋(píng)果過(guò)去25年持續(xù)投入人力、設(shè)備和流程的唯一國(guó)家。

Analysts at the firm Wedbush estimated that a domestically built iPhone would cost more than triple its current price tag, which would mean about $3,500. Worse, America simply lacks the manufacturing expertise, the competitive industrial clusters and even the population density required to make Apple products en masse.

韋德布什公司分析師估算，美國(guó)本土組裝的iPhone成本將是現(xiàn)價(jià)三倍多，約3500美元。更糟的是，美國(guó)根本缺乏大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)蘋(píng)果產(chǎn)品所需的制造技術(shù)、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性產(chǎn)業(yè)集群甚至人口密度。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.equalizerredsea.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處


Many Apple suppliers are heavily reliant on China’s low-paid workers who migrate to cities for seasonal work, a number estimated at 300 million to 500 million adults, which even at its lower extent is nearly equivalent to every man, woman and child in the United States. In the busy holiday season, these workers are critical to Apple’s ability to ship one million iPhones per day, with each unit comprising roughly 1,000 components. Trying to move all manufacturing out of China would most likely cost hundreds of billions of dollars.

眾多蘋(píng)果供應(yīng)商極度依賴中國(guó)進(jìn)城務(wù)工的低薪勞動(dòng)力，規(guī)模約3-5億成年人，下限都接近美國(guó)總?cè)丝?。旺季時(shí)，這些工人對(duì)蘋(píng)果實(shí)現(xiàn)日產(chǎn)百萬(wàn)臺(tái)iPhone（每臺(tái)含約1000個(gè)元件）至關(guān)重要。將全部產(chǎn)能遷出中國(guó)恐耗資數(shù)千億美元。

So in 2016, when Mr. Trump was urging his supporters to boycott Apple products and threatening huge China tariffs, little wonder that Mr. Cook, a quiet Democrat and a strong supporter of L.G.B.T.Q. rights and diversity initiatives, went on a charm offensive. He made a point of calling Mr. Trump and visiting frequently. The next year, Mr. Trump said that Mr. Cook vowed to build “three big plants, beautiful plants” in America.

因此2016年特朗普鼓動(dòng)支持者抵制蘋(píng)果產(chǎn)品并威脅加征關(guān)稅時(shí)，身為民主黨人且力挺LGBTQ權(quán)益的庫(kù)克發(fā)動(dòng)魅力攻勢(shì)毫不奇怪。他特意頻繁致電拜訪特朗普。次年特朗普稱庫(kù)克承諾在美建"三個(gè)大廠，超棒的廠"。

The flattery worked, with Apple gaining broad exemptions from Mr. Trump’s tariffs. But Apple built zero plants in the United States. Its chief executive simply ran out the clock on Mr. Trump’s presidency.

諂媚奏效了，蘋(píng)果獲得廣泛關(guān)稅豁免。但蘋(píng)果在美建廠數(shù)為零。這位CEO只是耗盡了特朗普的總統(tǒng)任期。

Since then, Apple has only grown closer to the Middle Kingdom, winning over Chinese officials by helping Chinese companies mimic, and then oust, rival multinationals that were responsible for building China’s tech manufacturing dominance over the past decade, my reporting has shown. Apple’s annual reports show the number of Chinese vendors in its top-supplier list more than tripled, to 52, from 2012 to 2023, displacing their American and Taiwanese rivals.

據(jù)我調(diào)查，此后蘋(píng)果與中國(guó)越走越近，通過(guò)幫助中企模仿并排擠那些曾助力中國(guó)科技制造崛起的跨國(guó)對(duì)手來(lái)討好官員。蘋(píng)果年報(bào)顯示，2012至2023年間其核心供應(yīng)商名單里的中企數(shù)量增長(zhǎng)超兩倍至52家，取代了美臺(tái)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。

Mr. Cook donated $1 million to and attended Mr. Trump’s 2025 inauguration. And a few weeks later Apple pledged to “spend and invest” $500 billion to expand “support for American manufacturing” during the president’s second term. Mr. Trump boasted that the investment reflected his “America First” agenda.

庫(kù)克向特朗普2025年就職典禮捐款百萬(wàn)美元并出席。幾周后蘋(píng)果承諾在特朗普第二任期"投入"5000億美元擴(kuò)大"對(duì)美國(guó)制造業(yè)支持"。特朗普吹噓這體現(xiàn)了其"美國(guó)優(yōu)先"政策。

That promise alone won’t be enough to save Apple. Some of Mr. Trump’s advisers must realize that Apple’s promise may be nonsense. There’s little evidence the company will spend anywhere near $500 billion; the announcement mentioned just four new initiatives whose total investment is unlikely to be even one-tenth that amount. Unless the math misleadingly includes buybacks and dividends, which have nothing to do with American manufacturing, or unless further projects are really planned, the pledge, like the one Mr. Cook made in Mr. Trump’s first term, is hot air.

光靠承諾救不了蘋(píng)果。特朗普部分幕僚肯定明白蘋(píng)果的承諾可能是空話。幾乎沒(méi)有證據(jù)表明蘋(píng)果會(huì)真投5000億；聲明僅提了四個(gè)新項(xiàng)目，總投資恐不足十分之一。除非把與制造業(yè)無(wú)關(guān)的股票回購(gòu)和分紅算進(jìn)去，或真有后續(xù)計(jì)劃，否則這承諾和庫(kù)克上屆任期的表態(tài)一樣是空頭支票。

And this time, Mr. Trump’s tariffs are far more onerous. Set to take effect on Wednesday, they are the biggest threat to Apple’s business since Mr. Jobs returned to save the company from near bankruptcy in 1997. Analysts from Rosenblatt Securities estimated they could diminish Apple’s annual profits by $40 billion. Not only did Mr. Trump say last week that he would impose a steep 54 percent tariff on China (including earlier increases); he also included at least 90 other countries, effectively short-circuiting Apple’s efforts to reroute products through Vietnam (tariffs: 46 percent) or India (27 percent). In responding with tariffs of its own, China shows no sign of backing down from a fight. Nor does Mr. Trump, who is pushing ahead with an additional 50 percent tariff first threatened on Monday.

這次特朗普關(guān)稅嚴(yán)厲得多。周三生效的新規(guī)是自1997年喬布斯挽救瀕危蘋(píng)果以來(lái)最大威脅。羅森布拉特證券分析師估計(jì)年利潤(rùn)可能縮水400億美元。特朗普不僅宣布對(duì)中國(guó)加征54%關(guān)稅（含此前漲幅），還將至少90國(guó)納入清單，實(shí)際上堵死了蘋(píng)果經(jīng)越南（46%關(guān)稅）或印度（27%）轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)產(chǎn)品的退路。中國(guó)以關(guān)稅反擊，毫無(wú)退讓跡象。特朗普也堅(jiān)持推進(jìn)周一威脅的額外50%關(guān)稅。

Apple is stuck, and there is no obvious way out. Even if it were possible for Mr. Cook to move Apple production out of China immediately, he would risk stirring Beijing’s ire and endangering a roughly $70 billion business there. His only option is to continue pushing more final assembly of Apple products to places like India and Vietnam while leaving the bulk of complex manufacturing in China — walking a line that grows ever thinner and more precarious. Apple shares have lost more than $1 trillion since peaking in late December.

蘋(píng)果進(jìn)退維谷。即便庫(kù)克能立即轉(zhuǎn)移產(chǎn)能，也可能激怒北京危及700億美元在華業(yè)務(wù)。他唯一選擇是把更多最終組裝遷往印越，同時(shí)將核心制造留在中國(guó)——這條鋼絲越走越險(xiǎn)。蘋(píng)果股價(jià)自去年12月峰值已蒸發(fā)超萬(wàn)億美元。

Mr. Trump would be a fool not to see past Apple’s politicking this time. Then again, he often cares more about appearances than principles. Anyone betting on Apple’s future should hope Mr. Cook has one more diplomatic ace up his sleeve. This time, the odds against him are long.

特朗普若再看不穿蘋(píng)果的政治把戲就是真蠢。不過(guò)他一向重表象輕原則。押注蘋(píng)果未來(lái)的人只能指望庫(kù)克還有外交王牌。這次，勝算渺茫。