中國(guó)為何贏得了芯片競(jìng)賽：材料、市場(chǎng)、資金和摩爾定律（二）
Why China is winning the chips race: materials, markets, money, and Moore's Law
譯文簡(jiǎn)介
一個(gè)擁有低成本基礎(chǔ)、龐大國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)和潛在出口市場(chǎng)的制造業(yè)強(qiáng)國(guó)是一個(gè)強(qiáng)大的對(duì)手。西方多希望回到 1900 年，那時(shí)它只需派出兩艘軍艦就能按照國(guó)際規(guī)則解決問(wèn)題。
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Simple answer: They choose cooperation and peace rather than competition and wars.
簡(jiǎn)單的回答：他們選擇合作與和平，而不是競(jìng)爭(zhēng)與戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。
A manufacturing power house with a low cost base, a big home market and therefore potential export market is a formidable opponent. How the West wish that it's 1900 when it can just sail 2 warships over to sort things out the international rule based way.
一個(gè)擁有低成本基礎(chǔ)、龐大國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)和潛在出口市場(chǎng)的制造業(yè)強(qiáng)國(guó)是一個(gè)強(qiáng)大的對(duì)手。西方多希望回到 1900 年，那時(shí)它只需派出兩艘軍艦就能按照國(guó)際規(guī)則解決問(wèn)題。
I find it amusing that in certain crowds, the reflexive response to this whole China thing is that 'they don't have basic science' - don't come up with the 'big ideas'. What they don't understand is that Ideas are cheap. Engineering is hard. Experience (extracting, processing, manufacturing) is fundamental to building iterative engineering know-how. Sometimes the Chinese workarounds are somewhat kludgy, but they work. May not be the 'bestest', nor 'most optimal', but they get the job done instead of winning awards from some magazine or blog.
我發(fā)現(xiàn)有趣的是，在某些群體中，對(duì)整個(gè)中國(guó)問(wèn)題的本能反應(yīng)是“他們沒(méi)有基礎(chǔ)科學(xué)”——不要提出“宏偉的計(jì)劃”。他們不明白的是，創(chuàng)意很廉價(jià)。工程很難。經(jīng)驗(yàn)（提取、加工、制造）是建立迭代工程技術(shù)的基礎(chǔ)。有時(shí)，中國(guó)的解決方案有些笨拙，但它們確實(shí)有效?？赡懿皇恰白詈玫摹保膊皇恰白顑?yōu)的”，但它們完成了工作，而不是贏得一些雜志或博客的獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)。
'Chip packaging' makes tons of sense. What might be considered 'obsolete' technology in a few years in the current paradigm will be cheap, abundant and (relatively) easily made. Figuring out how to stack them to work as well as the latest 'disruptive' technology would be decisive technology in itself.
“芯片封裝”意義非凡。在目前的模式下，幾年后可能被視為“過(guò)時(shí)”的技術(shù)將變得廉價(jià)、豐富且（相對(duì)）容易制造。弄清楚如何將它們與最新的“顛覆性”技術(shù)結(jié)合起來(lái)，這本身就是一項(xiàng)決定性的技術(shù)。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.equalizerredsea.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
What Japan was unable to do 40 years ago, China will.
40年前日本做不到的事，中國(guó)可以做到。
"ai experts believe generative AI only possible with 4nm chips and smaller"
Deepseek v3:
Heres a model we built on inferior chip sets that outperform GPT-o4 and costs 88% less to run, trained for 95% lower cost.
“人工智能專(zhuān)家認(rèn)為，只有 4nm 及更小的芯片才能實(shí)現(xiàn)生成式人工智能”
這是我們?cè)诹淤|(zhì)芯片組上構(gòu)建的模型，其性能優(yōu)于 GPT-o4，運(yùn)行成本降低了 88%，訓(xùn)練成本降低了 95%。
When China makes chips it'll be real cheap and this would contribute to the progress of humanity.
當(dāng)中國(guó)制造芯片時(shí)，將會(huì)是白菜價(jià)，這將有助于人類(lèi)的進(jìn)步。
US is providing great incentives to China to be self reliant on Semi conductor industries. Punishments are not always bad. It would be wise if US also focuses in maintaining the lead rather than slowing itself to block China from overtaking.
美國(guó)為中國(guó)提供了巨大的激勵(lì)，使其在半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)自力更生。懲罰并不總是壞事。如果美國(guó)也專(zhuān)注于保持領(lǐng)先地位，而不是放慢速度阻止中國(guó)超越，那將是明智之舉。
But israel needs more money
但是以色列需要更多的錢(qián)
This video oversimplifies the complex reality of semiconductor development, equating market size and investment dollars with technological mastery. While China has made progress, the narrative here reads more like triumphalist propaganda than balanced analysis. A serious examination would include technical challenges, yield rates, and independent verification of capabilities rather than assuming that chip packaging and raw material access automatically translate to cutting-edge semiconductor success.
這段視頻過(guò)分簡(jiǎn)化了半導(dǎo)體發(fā)展的復(fù)雜現(xiàn)實(shí)，將市場(chǎng)規(guī)模和投資金額等同于技術(shù)掌握。雖然中國(guó)取得了進(jìn)步，但這里的敘述更像是勝利主義宣傳，而不是平衡的分析。認(rèn)真的考察應(yīng)該包括技術(shù)挑戰(zhàn)、收益率和能力的獨(dú)立驗(yàn)證，而不是假設(shè)芯片封裝和原材料獲取會(huì)自動(dòng)轉(zhuǎn)化為尖端半導(dǎo)體的成功。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.equalizerredsea.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
Thank you very much for the insight into the chip business. I am no expert but it seems to me that China is on the path to produce photonic chips in great numbers. Since there is a lot of ai gernerated content and anti -china propaganda out there, it would be very much appriciated if you could do a clip on this matter. Happy new year to you and keep on.
非常感謝你對(duì)芯片業(yè)務(wù)的見(jiàn)解。我不是專(zhuān)家，但在我看來(lái)，中國(guó)正在大量生產(chǎn)光子芯片。由于現(xiàn)在有很多人工智能生成的內(nèi)容和反華宣傳，如果你能就此事做一個(gè)視頻，我將不勝感激。祝你新年快樂(lè)，繼續(xù)加油。
I'm waiting to hear news about China finding another base material that can allow much faster operational speed without resorting to reducing the size of transistors to below 2nm.
我正在等待有關(guān)中國(guó)找到另一種基礎(chǔ)材料的消息，這種材料可以實(shí)現(xiàn)更快的運(yùn)行速度，而無(wú)需將晶體管尺寸縮小到 2nm 以下。
Superior insights as always! Just one quick comment: Good, as in Industry Leading Packaging is extremely hard, especially because one is using existing Chips. Often it’s easier to start with a blank sheet Design.
I am a Mechanical Engineering working in Nanotechnology.
一如既往的卓越見(jiàn)解！ 只有一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)短的評(píng)論：很好，因?yàn)樾袠I(yè)領(lǐng)先的封裝非常困難，特別是因?yàn)槿藗冋谑褂矛F(xiàn)有的芯片。 通常從一張白紙開(kāi)始設(shè)計(jì)更容易。
我是一名從事納米技術(shù)的機(jī)械工程師。
Kevin: what you mention is semi conductors are approaching the physical limits for what is possible. New breakthroughs have to come from new materials like to replace sillicon. China is investing in the search of new materials.
凱文：你提到的是半導(dǎo)體正在接近物理極限。新的突破必須來(lái)自新材料，例如替代硅的材料。中國(guó)正在投資尋找新材料。
Good morning. Happy New Year Kevin. 29th Jan start of the Year of the Dog. Will be extremely interesting for all. Be good everyone as Kevin keeps reminding us. Start praying. Work with China not against. ????
早上好。新年快樂(lè)，凱文。1 月 29 日是狗年的開(kāi)始。對(duì)所有人而言都將是極其有趣的一天。凱文一直提醒我們，大家要保持善良。開(kāi)始祈禱。與中國(guó)合作，而不是對(duì)抗。
i'm watching your channel to decide what stock need to buy ?
我正在看你的頻道來(lái)決定需要買(mǎi)什么股票
I agree with many other comments that this channel is pure gold!
I’ve been referencing Kevin in my appearances on Trent on the Loos/ Across the Pond on the BekTV show for the US agricultural sector, emploring viewers to see the bigger picture and follow Inside China Business
我同意許多其他評(píng)論，認(rèn)為這個(gè)頻道是真正的黃金！
我在 Trent on the Loos/Across the Pond on the BekTV 節(jié)目中提到了 凱文，該節(jié)目針對(duì)美國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部門(mén)，懇請(qǐng)觀眾看清大局，關(guān)注中國(guó)商業(yè)內(nèi)幕
The size of a silicon atom is 0.2 nm. So Moore's law isn't just slowing down. It's going to hit a brick wall soon. The smallest geometry for chips is around 1nm. You can't go lower due to electron tunneling issues. Which means that an electron will jump from one circuit to another causing errors in calculation. So either way, you're stuck with around 1nm.
硅原子的尺寸為 0.2 納米。因此，摩爾定律不只是在放緩。它很快就會(huì)遇到瓶頸。芯片的最小幾何尺寸約為 1 納米。由于電子隧穿問(wèn)題，你無(wú)法再縮小尺寸。這意味著電子會(huì)從一個(gè)電路跳到另一個(gè)電路，從而導(dǎo)致計(jì)算錯(cuò)誤。因此，無(wú)論哪種方式，你都只能使用 1 納米左右的尺寸。
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.equalizerredsea.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
If you graduate 10 times more engineers than others, this is what's going to happen. (I speak as an arts grad who has engineers friends)
如果你畢業(yè)的工程師數(shù)量是其他人的 10 倍，就會(huì)發(fā)生這種情況。（我以文科畢業(yè)生的身份發(fā)言，我有工程師朋友）
China is the factory of the world, the biggest market. If you don't sell chips to them, where do you sell to?
中國(guó)是世界工廠，是最大的市場(chǎng)，你不賣(mài)芯片給他們，賣(mài)給誰(shuí)呢？
Hidden within all this, the US adversarial stance towards the PRC causes great wastage on research funds as there will be duplication of experiments. A good example of unnecessary competing approaches is NACS versus CCS2 in EV charging: it would be helpful just to harmonise to CCS2 which dominates in Asia and Europe.
隱藏在這一切中的，是美國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)的敵對(duì)立場(chǎng)，導(dǎo)致研究資金的大量浪費(fèi)，因?yàn)閷?shí)驗(yàn)會(huì)重復(fù)。電動(dòng)汽車(chē)充電中 NACS 與 CCS2 之間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)就是一個(gè)不必要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)方法的很好例子：只要與在亞洲和歐洲占主導(dǎo)地位的 CCS2 協(xié)調(diào)一致就很有幫助。
The black listing of Chinese companies by the US government is extremely foolish.
美國(guó)政府將中國(guó)企業(yè)列入黑名單是極其愚蠢的行為。
i dont get it, you own the best restaurant in town and you force the top regular customer to cook at home.
我不明白，你擁有城里最好的餐館，卻強(qiáng)迫最好的?？驮诩易鲲垺?/b>
Starting at 14:00 Kevin makes a very compelling argument and on the issue of the Chinese market and why the MAGA manufacturing to US will fail miserably.
Who will all these US manufacturers sell to?
Why would Brazil buy MAGA EVs when they can get all they need from China which is of better quality and cheaper.
USA is already losing Oil sales to China and they are also losing on the food industry.
So having all the manufacturing with a contracted market is as lucrative as fools gold.
從 14:00 分處開(kāi)始，凱文就中國(guó)市場(chǎng)問(wèn)題以及為什么 MAGA 在美國(guó)制造將慘遭失敗提出了一個(gè)非常有說(shuō)服力的論點(diǎn)。
所有這些美國(guó)制造商將向誰(shuí)銷(xiāo)售？
既然巴西可以從中國(guó)獲得他們所需的所有東西，而且質(zhì)量更好、價(jià)格更便宜，那他們?yōu)槭裁匆?gòu)買(mǎi) MAGA 電動(dòng)汽車(chē)呢？
美國(guó)已經(jīng)在向中國(guó)輸油，食品行業(yè)也在虧損。
因此，擁有一個(gè)萎縮的市場(chǎng)，擁有所有的制造業(yè)，就像愚人金一樣有利可圖。
@Macronomics-MT.. Couldn't agree more, brilliant analysis by Kevin.
完全同意，凱文的分析非常出色。
China so dominates in purchases of chips and in control of raw materials such as silicon wafers that it seems silly at this point that the American government has any chance on doing something about it.
I think that the US’s best strategy now is to cooperate with China and go along on its coattails. Let China re-invent American ports, develop better ways of cheaply transporting goods from the west coast to the east coast, rebuild its bridges, develop a high-speed rail system, set up hubs for making batteries and electric cars.
But perhaps I am just dreaming. Maybe just let US influence keep waning, its cities just decline. Instead, China pour the effort into Russia/India, Africa, Central and South America, West and Central Asia.
中國(guó)在芯片采購(gòu)和硅晶圓等原材料的控制方面占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位，因此美國(guó)政府現(xiàn)在看來(lái)，采取任何行動(dòng)都是愚蠢的。
我認(rèn)為，美國(guó)現(xiàn)在最好的策略是與中國(guó)合作，并順應(yīng)中國(guó)。讓中國(guó)重新改造美國(guó)港口，開(kāi)發(fā)更好的方式以更便宜的方式將貨物從西海岸運(yùn)到東海岸，重建橋梁，發(fā)展高速鐵路系統(tǒng)，建立電池和電動(dòng)汽車(chē)制造中心。
但也許我只是在做夢(mèng)。也許就讓美國(guó)的影響力不斷減弱，它的城市就此衰落。相反，中國(guó)將精力投入到俄羅斯/印度、非洲、中美洲和南美洲、西亞和中亞。
BTW China is world leader in chip packaging
順便說(shuō)一句，中國(guó)是芯片封裝領(lǐng)域的世界領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者
Really appreciate your insight from China this year i have been following you. Thank you Kevin. wishing you and family happy and prosperous new year 2025. Thanks
非常感謝你今年在中國(guó)的見(jiàn)解，我一直在關(guān)注你。謝謝你，凱文。祝你和家人 2025 年新年快樂(lè)、興旺發(fā)達(dá)。謝謝
They turned China from their biggest customer to their biggest competitor.
Thanks Obama!
他們把中國(guó)從最大的客戶變成了最大的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。
都虧了奧巴馬！
Will the incoming U.S. presidential administration have the understanding and focus to realize that international mutual cooperation with Russia and China is the most beneficial path forward forward for our country? So far many of its cabinet and ambassador choices are not promising in this regard.
新一屆美國(guó)政府是否會(huì)認(rèn)識(shí)到，與俄羅斯和中國(guó)的國(guó)際合作是對(duì)美國(guó)最有利的發(fā)展道路？迄今為止，其許多內(nèi)閣和大使人選在這方面都不太樂(lè)觀。
I think, for the 2nm chips, being small, it will take up less room to store those unsold products. Without the biggest market in the world, there would be plenty of those too.
我認(rèn)為，對(duì)于 2nm 芯片來(lái)說(shuō)，由于尺寸較小，因此占用的空間較少，用于存放未售出的產(chǎn)品。如果沒(méi)有世界上最大的市場(chǎng)，也會(huì)有很多這樣的產(chǎn)品。
A friendly warning to you all, if things go awry between US and China, China will order TSMC to cease all productions at its Arizona facility. TSMC would have no choice but to comply. The US will have to either negotiate a settlement with China or retaliate in kind. There may be a historic disruption in the global semiconductor market in the near future. If you are delaying a purchase for smart phone or other electronics you should reconsider your delay.
友情提醒大家，如果中美關(guān)系惡化，中國(guó)將要求臺(tái)積電停止其亞利桑那州工廠的所有生產(chǎn)。臺(tái)積電別無(wú)選擇，只能服從。美國(guó)要么與中國(guó)談判和解，要么以牙還牙。不久的將來(lái)，全球半導(dǎo)體市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)歷史性動(dòng)蕩。如果你正在推遲購(gòu)買(mǎi)智能手機(jī)或其他電子產(chǎn)品，你應(yīng)該重新考慮你推遲的想法。
I would love to see a discussion about the US’s China policy with Gina Raimondo. I would love to hear how she argues for her policies in the face of the reality that Kevin describes.
我很想看到吉娜·雷蒙多討論美國(guó)的對(duì)華政策。我很想聽(tīng)聽(tīng)她如何面對(duì)凱文所描述的現(xiàn)實(shí)來(lái)為自己制定政策。
BTW - Moore's law is already dead. The original Moore's law as described in Intel's webpage is "Moore's Law is the observation that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double every two years with minimal rise in cost." The doubling of transistors every 2 years or so still holds but the minimal rise in cost doesn't. In fact the doubling with minimal rise in cost rule has stopped working since about the 28nm. Now, to get to 3nm or 2nm, a customer will have to invest anywhere between $500 million to $1B in development cost. That is an astronomical cost that only a handful of customers in the world can afford. With the exception of mobile phone applications and some others that require very small physical size, few others require less than 7nm technology. 7nm-14nm is a great choice for most advanced applications in terms of cost performance trade offs.
順便說(shuō)一句 ，摩爾定律已經(jīng)過(guò)時(shí)了。英特爾網(wǎng)頁(yè)上對(duì)摩爾定律的最初描述是“摩爾定律是指集成電路上的晶體管數(shù)量每?jī)赡攴环?，而成本上升幅度很小。”每?jī)赡曜笥揖w管數(shù)量翻一番的定律仍然成立，但成本上升幅度很小的定律卻不成立。事實(shí)上，自 28nm 以來(lái)，晶體管數(shù)量翻一番且成本上升幅度很小的定律已經(jīng)失效。
現(xiàn)在，要達(dá)到 3nm 或 2nm，客戶必須投資 5 億至 10 億美元開(kāi)發(fā)成本。這是一筆天文數(shù)字般的成本，世界上只有少數(shù)客戶能負(fù)擔(dān)得起。除了手機(jī)應(yīng)用和其他一些需要非常小的物理尺寸的應(yīng)用外，很少有其他應(yīng)用需要低于 7nm 的技術(shù)。從性價(jià)比的角度來(lái)看，7nm-14nm 是大多數(shù)先進(jìn)應(yīng)用的絕佳選擇。
the west (usa) only knows zero sum... hard to accept others can be better
西方（美國(guó)）只知道零和博弈……難以接受別人能做得更好
Do cell phones really need 3 nm technology? The advantage is mainly longer battery life but current battery life is not a show stopper. Software and trifold cell phones differentiate top end products more than 3 nm technology
手機(jī)真的需要 3 納米技術(shù)嗎？?jī)?yōu)勢(shì)主要在于電池壽命更長(zhǎng)，但目前的電池壽命并不是決定性因素。軟件和三折手機(jī)在 3 納米技術(shù)上與高端產(chǎn)品的區(qū)別更大
Time to refresh my Russian and Mandarin
是時(shí)候復(fù)習(xí)一下我的俄語(yǔ)和普通話了，哈哈
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An old farmer carting his potatoes home from the field is not affected by data moving at twice the speed of light. He will make it home and his wife won’t be microwaving crickets for his supper. All the best to you and your subscribers in the coming struggle.
一位老農(nóng)夫從田里用車(chē)把土豆運(yùn)回家，不會(huì)受到以兩倍光速移動(dòng)的數(shù)據(jù)的影響。他會(huì)回到家，而他的妻子也不會(huì)用微波爐加熱蟋蟀作為晚餐。祝你和你的訂閱者在未來(lái)的斗爭(zhēng)中一切順利。
Trump tariffs is the biggest mistake the US is making - a historic mistake - 5 years from now the US will look back and blame Trump for everything
特朗普的關(guān)稅是美國(guó)犯下的最大錯(cuò)誤——一個(gè)歷史性的錯(cuò)誤——5年后，美國(guó)回過(guò)頭來(lái)會(huì)把一切都?xì)w咎于特朗普
When you say China is one of the largest consumers of semiconductors, are you accounting for the portion that gets used in products which are exported?
當(dāng)你說(shuō)中國(guó)是最大的半導(dǎo)體消費(fèi)國(guó)之一時(shí)，你是否計(jì)算了用于出口產(chǎn)品的部分？
In the end, the economic value determines the direction of advancement and development. I was thinking there might be new instruction sets that works more efficiently emerging.
最終，經(jīng)濟(jì)價(jià)值決定了進(jìn)步和發(fā)展的方向。我在想可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)新的更高效的指令集。
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I guess its simple mathematics , more people (STEM) , more resources ( Natural and economic) and your survival is at stake will make you very hard to compete against and this summarises the US vs China Chip War . Time will show that this will be the most critical advantage the US has ever lost.
我想這很簡(jiǎn)單，更多的人（STEM），更多的資源（自然和經(jīng)濟(jì)），你的生存受到威脅，這將使你很難與之競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，這就是美國(guó)與中國(guó)芯片之戰(zhàn)的總結(jié)。時(shí)間將證明，這將是美國(guó)有史以來(lái)失去的最關(guān)鍵的優(yōu)勢(shì)。
You should cover the humanoid robot industry, development, deployment and cost reductions achievable. How much is being invested by China in this?
你應(yīng)該介紹一下人形機(jī)器人行業(yè)、開(kāi)發(fā)、部署和可實(shí)現(xiàn)的成本降低。中國(guó)在這方面投入了多少？
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There is s saying that no one could decide your fate for you. But they could confuse you into believing that you are a victim. USA NATO really do believe that they can determine the fate of other nations. But this our works if those people accept such concepts. Once awake the trick dies. ?t's died with China and USA NATO has no plan B other than use force. But even that will not work. USA NATO will do better to focus on looking after their own people and reducing mass poverty and concentrated capital in few hands which is getting out of hand in USA
有句俗話說(shuō)，沒(méi)有人能替你決定命運(yùn)。但他們可以迷惑你，讓你相信自己是受害者。美國(guó)北約確實(shí)相信他們可以決定其他國(guó)家的命運(yùn)。但如果那些人接受這樣的概念，這就是我們的工作。一旦覺(jué)醒，詭計(jì)就消失了。在中國(guó)和美國(guó)北約的幫助下，它已經(jīng)失敗了，除了使用武力，美國(guó)北約沒(méi)有其他計(jì)劃。但即使那樣也行不通。美國(guó)北約最好把重點(diǎn)放在照顧自己的人民，減少大規(guī)模貧困和資本集中在少數(shù)人手中，而這在美國(guó)已經(jīng)失控了
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Most financial folks have ZERO understanding about nuclear physics. Right now chip fabs are very close to the minimum size. In only a few years each transistor on a chip will be as small as possible and Moore's law will end.
大多數(shù)金融人士對(duì)核物理一無(wú)??所知?，F(xiàn)在的晶片廠非常接近最小尺寸。在短短幾年內(nèi)，芯片上的每個(gè)晶體管將盡可能小，摩爾定律將被終結(jié)。
Every bit and byte of information you present is taken into consideration helping me to comprehend the global special Military Operation. Humanity will be free soon. U.S.A will be the last to snap out of the spell. It doesn't look to be a pleasant process.
你提供的每一點(diǎn)信息都對(duì)我理解全球特別軍事行動(dòng)有幫助。人類(lèi)很快就會(huì)獲得自由。美國(guó)將是最后一個(gè)擺脫困境的國(guó)家。這看起來(lái)不是一個(gè)愉快的過(guò)程。
China said foreign chips are threatening to China national security so they have been buying less chips from another countries.
中國(guó)表示，外國(guó)芯片對(duì)中國(guó)國(guó)家安全構(gòu)成威脅，因此減少?gòu)钠渌麌?guó)家購(gòu)買(mǎi)芯片。
Interesting times we live in. We've gotten so far that we are asking, what is the point of going further? Hopefully collectively we can start to look back and pay attention to where we're dropped the ball and left people behind
我們生活在一個(gè)有趣的時(shí)代。我們已經(jīng)走了這么遠(yuǎn)，我們不禁要問(wèn)，繼續(xù)前行還有什么意義？希望我們能夠共同回顧過(guò)去，關(guān)注我們?cè)谀睦锸д`，在哪里把人們拋在后面
Another great example of intelligence is what Huawei has demonstrated with the excellent integration between its own operating system and its latest processor, with 7nm it achieves a level superior to the latest processor in Google's phone. It shows that to have a top-of-the-range phone you don't necessarily need a 3nm processor.
另一個(gè)很棒的智能例子是華為展示了其自有操作系統(tǒng)與最新處理器之間的出色集成，7nm 達(dá)到了優(yōu)于谷歌手機(jī)最新處理器的水平。這表明，要擁有一款頂級(jí)手機(jī)，你不一定需要 3nm 處理器。
Thanks for the new video. It isn’t surprising that China is going for the low hanging fruit. It won’t be long before the have the cutting edge of EUV and beat the Dutch company at its own game. I won’t be surprised if they are working on a 1 nm chip. It does spark my curiosity as to what supply chains they will control for that technology.
感謝新視頻。中國(guó)追求唾手可得的果實(shí)并不奇怪。用不了多久，他們就會(huì)擁有EUV的尖端技術(shù)，并在自己的游戲中擊敗這家荷蘭公司。如果他們正在研發(fā) 1 納米芯片，我不會(huì)感到驚訝。這確實(shí)激發(fā)了我的好奇心，想知道他們將控制哪些供應(yīng)鏈來(lái)開(kāi)發(fā)該技術(shù)。
It seems inconceivable to me that chip makers rushed head down as fast as they could into making smaller and smaller chips without considering what they could gain by putting them together in novel ways…
Did they not play with Lego as kids?
我覺(jué)得難以想象，芯片制造商們一頭扎進(jìn)制造越來(lái)越小的芯片，卻沒(méi)有考慮以新穎的方式組裝芯片能給他們帶來(lái)什么好處……
他們小時(shí)候沒(méi)玩過(guò)樂(lè)高嗎？
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.equalizerredsea.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
Why can't they sell it to China while still can make profit before it is too late ...that's why you are in China Kevin, the future of the world..
為什么他們不能把它賣(mài)到中國(guó)，趁還沒(méi)太遲還能賺錢(qián)，哈哈...凱文，這就是你在中國(guó)的原因，世界的未來(lái)……
They don't understand people needs 28nm to 14nm chips about 75%. 7nm to 5nm only use on smartphone and computers..
他們不明白人們大約 75% 需要 28nm 到 14nm 的芯片。7nm 到 5nm 僅用于智能手機(jī)和電腦。
Meanwhile, the USA aka IOU-country, will reach ceiling of their debts within 2 weeks.
So which POTUS will go to China and beg for more loans?
與此同時(shí)，美國(guó)這個(gè)欠條國(guó)家將在兩周內(nèi)達(dá)到債務(wù)上限。
那么哪位美國(guó)總統(tǒng)會(huì)去中國(guó)乞求更多貸款呢？
Yes, the Huawei Mate70 is another example of using 7nm and repackaged into almost 3nm performance. The Huawei Mate60 is 7nm repackaged into 5nm performance. Overheating is also avoided this way. Performance wise, the Chinese has caught up...half a generation gap. Still China or Huawei or SMIC will produce the 5nm this year once the yield is good. It will get there. Slow and steady.
是的，華為 Mate70 是使用 7nm 并重新封裝成近 3nm 性能的另一個(gè)例子。華為 Mate60 是 7nm 重新封裝成 5nm 性能。這樣也可以避免過(guò)熱。性能方面，中國(guó)人已經(jīng)趕上來(lái)了……半代差距。中國(guó)、華為或中芯國(guó)際今年一旦產(chǎn)量好轉(zhuǎn)就會(huì)生產(chǎn) 5nm。它會(huì)到達(dá)那里的。慢慢來(lái)，穩(wěn)扎穩(wěn)打。
UAS desperate to lead n control the tech industries
But at what cost
UAS 渴望領(lǐng)導(dǎo)和控制科技行業(yè)
但代價(jià)是什么
Now do a vid on China’s new stealth fighter bomber…which is out faster than ours?
現(xiàn)在制作一個(gè)關(guān)于中國(guó)新型隱形戰(zhàn)斗轟炸機(jī)的視頻……它比我們的更快問(wèn)世
I don't understand the claim no freedom in china
我不明白為什么中國(guó)沒(méi)有自由
Perhaps if any country can develop a quantum computer processor that is sustainable it will be China - in these - there are no transistors to speak of - binary switches are replaced by superposition where the 1’s & 0’s are in the same place. That advance, if achieved could completely change the industry in the long run…
如果有哪個(gè)國(guó)家能夠開(kāi)發(fā)出可持續(xù)的量子計(jì)算機(jī)處理器，那可能就是中國(guó)了——在這些處理器中，沒(méi)有晶體管，二進(jìn)制開(kāi)關(guān)被疊加所取代，其中 1 和 0 位于同一位置。如果實(shí)現(xiàn)這一進(jìn)步，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看可能會(huì)徹底改變這個(gè)行業(yè)……
At the end of the day the American chip companies needs the Chinese market to sell to and invest their profits for R&D so what’s the point of sanctioning china ? I think President Trump should hire Kevin as an advisor
歸根結(jié)底，美國(guó)芯片公司需要中國(guó)市場(chǎng)來(lái)銷(xiāo)售產(chǎn)品，并將利潤(rùn)投資于研發(fā)，所以制裁中國(guó)有什么意義？我認(rèn)為特朗普總統(tǒng)應(yīng)該聘請(qǐng)凱文擔(dān)任顧問(wèn)
State capitalism will continue to lead in pure research. Currently in the USA pure research is done at universities or at Federal agencies like DOE. Some idiots want to defund both.
國(guó)家資本主義將繼續(xù)在純研究領(lǐng)域占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位。目前，美國(guó)的純研究是在大學(xué)或美國(guó)能源部等聯(lián)邦機(jī)構(gòu)進(jìn)行的。有些白癡想取消這兩方面的資助。
As a U.S. consumer with years old laptops and androids, I don't feel any compelling need for faster technology. Obviously, corporations, technology firms, and even government may prioritize speed. Well, maybe not government...
作為一名使用多年舊款筆記本電腦和安卓系統(tǒng)的美國(guó)消費(fèi)者，我并不覺(jué)得對(duì)更快技術(shù)有任何迫切需求。顯然，企業(yè)、科技公司甚至政府都可能優(yōu)先考慮速度。好吧，也許政府不會(huì)......
Who draw the first blood? These hostile org, companies will have to eat their chips soon.
誰(shuí)先流血？這些敵對(duì)組織、企業(yè)很快就會(huì)自食惡果。
where do you people think those people in taiwan come from? from China.
你們認(rèn)為臺(tái)灣（地區(qū)）人來(lái)自哪里？來(lái)自中國(guó)。
Does Cpngress and the Exec Branches ever look at the big and complete picture before issuing knee-jerk santions? Unintended (and adverse) consequences seem to result each time.
國(guó)會(huì)和行政部門(mén)在發(fā)布下意識(shí)的制裁之前，是否考慮過(guò)大局和全局？每次似乎都會(huì)產(chǎn)生意想不到的（和不利的）后果。
The West is still years ahead, but new gains take longer and are smaller according to the creator. Therfore, China is catching up around chip sanctions.
Still years behind
西方仍領(lǐng)先數(shù)年，但根據(jù)創(chuàng)造者的說(shuō)法，新的收益需要更長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間，而且規(guī)模更小。因此，中國(guó)正在芯片制裁方面迎頭趕上。
仍落后數(shù)年
Bans and sanctions hv failed. Read that lawfare is coming in 2025.
禁令和制裁都失敗了。讀到法律戰(zhàn)將在2025年到來(lái)。
Isn’t there a rare kind of sand needed for the manufacture of silicon wafers? Is there an alternative supply for Taiwan?
制造硅晶圓所需的沙子是不是非常稀有？臺(tái)灣（地區(qū)）有其他替代供應(yīng)嗎？
原創(chuàng)翻譯：龍騰網(wǎng) http://www.equalizerredsea.com 轉(zhuǎn)載請(qǐng)注明出處
The hack into Yellens treasury was very timely. Makes Bitcoin a hackable target.
耶倫國(guó)庫(kù)遭黑客入侵非常及時(shí)。這讓比特幣成為黑客攻擊的目標(biāo)。
Consumers don’t buy chips, they buy products, or not — as Apple is finding out.
消費(fèi)者購(gòu)買(mǎi)的不??是芯片，而是產(chǎn)品，或者不購(gòu)買(mǎi)——正如蘋(píng)果公司所發(fā)現(xiàn)的那樣。
chips include memory, logic and processing chips. larger nm(>5nm) chips have 80% share of global chip markets and this share is stable for some years now. larger chips are used across all industries from desktops, home/medical/travel/f&b/etc appliances where space and energy is not of critical concern. compact chips are energy efficient, mainly used in smaller devices like handheld. processing power mainly used to compute complex algorithms used in tech organizations/research/governments. china is leader in those bigger chip and are moving to compact chip market to align with its national plan to move its workforce to higher paying jobs. china is already outsourcing larger chip from design foundry packaging to other countries. although approach is 'similar' to that of usa in 90s, its different where usa outsourced its manufacturing to move its workforce into higher paying jobs in financial services legal industries, forsaking stem. china is evolving but sticking to stem. with alternative financial services proposed from brics, usa will need to make a long term strategic move. wanting both is unlikely to work, one has to give.
芯片包括內(nèi)存、邏輯和處理芯片。更大的 nm（>5nm）芯片占據(jù)全球芯片市場(chǎng) 80% 的份額，并且這一份額多年來(lái)一直保持穩(wěn)定。更大的芯片用于所有行業(yè)，從臺(tái)式機(jī)、家用/醫(yī)療/旅游/餐飲/等設(shè)備，這些設(shè)備對(duì)空間和能源的要求不是很高。緊湊型芯片節(jié)能，主要用于手持設(shè)備等較小的設(shè)備。處理能力主要用于計(jì)算技術(shù)組織/研究/政府使用的復(fù)雜算法。
中國(guó)是大型芯片領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者，并且正在向小型芯片市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)型，以配合其將勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移到高薪工作崗位的國(guó)家計(jì)劃。中國(guó)已經(jīng)將大型芯片的設(shè)計(jì)、代工和封裝業(yè)務(wù)外包給其他國(guó)家。盡管其方法與美國(guó)90年代的方法“相似”，但不同之處在于美國(guó)將制造業(yè)外包，將勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移到金融服務(wù)、法律行業(yè)的高薪工作崗位，放棄了STEM學(xué)科。中國(guó)正在發(fā)展，但堅(jiān)持培養(yǎng)STEM人才。隨著金磚國(guó)家提出替代金融服務(wù)，美國(guó)將需要采取長(zhǎng)期戰(zhàn)略舉措。兩者兼顧不太可能成功，必須有所取舍。
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