中國的“功夫”機(jī)器人參加人形機(jī)器人競賽引人注目
China's 'Kung Fu' Robot Spotlights Humanoid Robot Race
譯文簡介
中國機(jī)器人板塊本周大漲，起因是初創(chuàng)企業(yè)宇樹科技(Unitree)發(fā)布了其升級版G1機(jī)器人施展行云流水功夫動(dòng)作的視頻。高盛中國工業(yè)技術(shù)研究主管分享了其對機(jī)器人行業(yè)的見解，在節(jié)目中發(fā)表了看法。
正文翻譯
中國初創(chuàng)企業(yè)宇樹科技（Unitree）近期發(fā)布的升級版G1機(jī)器人表演功夫視頻引發(fā)市場熱潮，推動(dòng)機(jī)器人板塊股價(jià)大漲，其中合作方的股價(jià)一周飆升50%。高盛中國工業(yè)技術(shù)研究主管解析行業(yè)趨勢如下：
市場潛力：高盛預(yù)測人形機(jī)器人市場規(guī)模到2035年將達(dá)380億美元，理想情況下或突破2050億美元，堪比電動(dòng)汽車或智能手機(jī)產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模。
中美競合：美國在AI算法與語言模型領(lǐng)域領(lǐng)先，而中國憑借硬件制造與供應(yīng)鏈優(yōu)勢成為“世界工廠”，兩國技術(shù)互補(bǔ)性強(qiáng)，共同推動(dòng)行業(yè)發(fā)展。
技術(shù)挑戰(zhàn)：當(dāng)前機(jī)器人仍以研發(fā)和訓(xùn)練用途為主，技術(shù)拐點(diǎn)尚未到來。需驗(yàn)證其能否高效、自主完成復(fù)雜任務(wù)，并適應(yīng)生產(chǎn)線節(jié)奏。
投資邏輯：建議關(guān)注核心組件供應(yīng)商（如傳感器、芯片），而非整機(jī)廠商，因后者風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高且行業(yè)仍處早期階段。
風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與未來：安全性（如70公斤機(jī)體重心問題）是消費(fèi)級應(yīng)用的主要障礙。長期來看，家庭服務(wù)、養(yǎng)老護(hù)理等場景需求巨大，但需技術(shù)突破支撐。若AI進(jìn)展超預(yù)期，消費(fèi)市場或提前爆發(fā)。
芯片限制可能影響中國參與全球供應(yīng)鏈，但本土供應(yīng)鏈或催生自主機(jī)器人品牌。盡管當(dāng)前股市已反映樂觀預(yù)期，實(shí)際技術(shù)進(jìn)展仍需時(shí)間驗(yàn)證。
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China is becoming innovative in almost every industry
中國幾乎在所有產(chǎn)業(yè)領(lǐng)域都在變得富有創(chuàng)新力——真是讓人大開眼界。
That kung fu robot reminds me of someone going home late night after demolished 20 beers.
這功夫機(jī)器人讓我想起某個(gè)喝完20瓶啤酒后深夜回家的醉漢，走起路來簡直一模一樣。
In the mean time, the US is busy having fiery exchanges with its own allies.
與此同時(shí)，美國正忙著和自家盟友上演"友好交流"的戲碼。
Can't wait for the robot World Cup and Olympics.
已經(jīng)等不及要看機(jī)器人世界杯和奧運(yùn)會了！
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Still think that Elon will win the robot race?
現(xiàn)在還覺得馬斯克能在機(jī)器人競賽中勝出嗎？
One Unitree robot can beat up 100 Optimus (Tesla) robots
一個(gè)宇樹機(jī)器人能暴打100個(gè)特斯拉擎天柱
Watching robots fight would be dope.
看機(jī)器人對打絕對超帶感
Where is the indian yoga robot?
印度瑜伽機(jī)器人啥時(shí)候出場？
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So its real! I thought it was fake.
居然是真的！我還以為是特效
We got Kung fu robot before GTA6
GTA6還沒出，功夫機(jī)器人先來了
USA busy sanctioning chip technology, China busy proving them wrong
美國忙著搞芯片制裁，中國忙著證明他們是錯(cuò)的
We're ready for E-MMA fights !!!
電子綜合格斗大賽準(zhǔn)備就緒?。?！
This is the race to the bottom
這就是傳說中的比爛大賽
This is what you can achieve when your government isn't constantly fighting with itself.
First Virus & Now, Robots
當(dāng)政府不再內(nèi)耗時(shí)能創(chuàng)造什么？先是疫苗，現(xiàn)在是機(jī)器人
Unitree already has consuming product with a decent pricetag, Boston dynamic remains in the lab
宇樹已經(jīng)有價(jià)格親民的消費(fèi)級產(chǎn)品，波士頓動(dòng)力還泡在實(shí)驗(yàn)室里
years we've come really far in such a short time! Now robots are being taught to mimic Kungfu it's intimidating to say the least considering how fast technology is growing its only going to speed up. Idk but for me those is extremely overwhelming...
短短25年技術(shù)就突飛猛進(jìn)！現(xiàn)在連機(jī)器人都在學(xué)功夫，考慮到科技發(fā)展只會越來越快，這場景實(shí)在讓人心里發(fā)毛...說真的我有點(diǎn)承受不住這種沖擊
Now why would a robot ever need to do that? Lol
所以機(jī)器人到底為啥要學(xué)這個(gè)？笑哭
How realistic to expect EVs and robots to be sourced from only the US to the rest of the world? A business "moat" is attributed to the optimum way of conducting business at the "lowest" cost for any producer and consumer. Once you start restricting the product or service, it becomes a different kettle of fish. Public money is used by governments to circumvent it. The "business moat" consideration is no longer applicable as the "adversary" switches from the convenience of the business transaction to confrontation with human ingenuity. Reverse engineering will apply to both software and hardware. The roadmap for robots will mirror the development trends of the EV industry.
指望全球都只用美國的電動(dòng)車和機(jī)器人現(xiàn)實(shí)嗎？所謂"商業(yè)護(hù)城河"本應(yīng)建立在最優(yōu)成本上。但一旦開始搞產(chǎn)品限制，游戲規(guī)則就變了——政府用公款繞開限制，當(dāng)商業(yè)便利變成人類智慧對決時(shí)，"護(hù)城河"理論就失效了。軟硬件都會遭遇逆向工程，機(jī)器人發(fā)展路徑必將復(fù)刻電動(dòng)車行業(yè)的軌跡。
They need to make one that looks like ELVIS DOING KARATE MOVES
應(yīng)該做個(gè)貓王造型的空手道機(jī)器人
While the market is focusing on "humanoid" robots, the broader robot markets (outside of industrial) is service robots.
Spend time in China, travel around, and you see a variety of service robots. Robo-dogs, Hotel delivery, public info, community security on the streets, as personal companion's, in nursing homes, hospitals, restraunts,.etc...
當(dāng)市場緊盯"人形機(jī)器人"時(shí)，更廣闊的服務(wù)機(jī)器人市場正在中國遍地開花。實(shí)地走訪就會發(fā)現(xiàn)：從機(jī)器狗到酒店配送，從街頭導(dǎo)覽到社區(qū)安防，再到養(yǎng)老院、醫(yī)院、餐廳里的服務(wù)助手，各種形態(tài)的服務(wù)機(jī)器人已滲透生活各個(gè)角落。
People are hungry, homeless & stressed/depressed+ melting icecaps, ever growing landfills & global warming is compounding environmental effects, but we have robots to do kung fu
饑荒、流浪、焦慮抑郁愈演愈烈，冰川消融、垃圾成山、氣候變暖層層加碼——但咱們倒是有會打功夫的機(jī)器人了，你說諷刺不？
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As long as these robots arent hitting Lui Kang moves
只要?jiǎng)e讓它們使出劉康的必殺技就行（注：真人快打游戲角色）
Will there be robots in let's say a little darker color too
會有深色皮膚的機(jī)器人嗎？
CAN IT PLAY SHAOLIN SOCCER THO
所以它能踢少林足球嗎？
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Robot cage fight anyone? Unitree vs Boston dynamics
來場機(jī)器人籠斗怎么樣？宇樹大戰(zhàn)波士頓動(dòng)力
And a few months ago, in real world at the expo the robot was not even able to walk straight; don't get fooled.
別忘了幾個(gè)月前展會上這機(jī)器人連直線都走不穩(wěn)，保持清醒別被騙
Wait until you see one 300 feet high. You will need to run from the Robot driver.
等看到300英尺高的型號時(shí)，你們就得躲著機(jī)器人司機(jī)跑了
That cat is fast as lightning, in fact it's a little bit frightening....
這玩意快如閃電，說實(shí)話有點(diǎn)嚇人...
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The farmer that can incorporate 2 robots to weed & fertilize & harvest fruit, veggies.....first establishes a lifetime family situation.
能用兩個(gè)機(jī)器人完成除草施肥、果蔬收割的農(nóng)場主，算是給子孫后代打下金飯碗了
That's Kevin Bacon In a robot suit.
這分明是凱文·貝肯穿了機(jī)器人戲服
can anyone point out the advantages of humanoid robots? We have already had robots that are highly functional, and designed for specific applications for a long time.
有誰能說說人形機(jī)器人到底有啥優(yōu)勢嗎？畢竟專業(yè)領(lǐng)域早就有特制機(jī)器人了
Robots don't need Fentanyl and sufficient products to help people
機(jī)器人又不需要芬太尼（止痛藥），它們的存在本應(yīng)更好地服務(wù)人類
Imagine this robot given instruction to move at 10 times Bruce Lee's speed. It will be deadly. I'll bring one along on a trip to New York or Italy.
想象一下這機(jī)器人以李小龍十倍速度行動(dòng)，絕對是大殺器。去紐約或意大利旅游得帶一個(gè)防身
The US lost a decade in Unicorn gemders, Skin color debacles and more useless stuff.
美國在過去十年沉迷于獨(dú)角獸性別、膚色爭議這些破事
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Robots might be better for space work
機(jī)器人或許更適合太空作業(yè)
So if China really has this technology..... How come the robot they used for the new year's gala seemed to be years behind this robot in terms of advancement and technology?
既然真有這技術(shù)，為啥春晚用的機(jī)器人看著落后好幾年？
" ... everybody does kung-fu fighting "
"...人人都會功夫秀"
Okay why are not looking at Boston dynamics? Those robots were dancing and back flipping ON THERE OWN a couple years ago
怎么不提波士頓動(dòng)力？人家?guī)啄昵熬陀凶灾骱罂辗璧臋C(jī)器人了
It's like fire, you can use it to provide warmth and cook great meals or burn down the house. Does anyone complain about fire?
就像火能取暖做飯也能燒房子，但有人怪火本身嗎？
This news reporter screams when she talks!
這女記者說話像在尖叫！
The new Bruce Lee, cant wait for the movie.
新時(shí)代李小龍，坐等電影上映
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The MMA robot will still win easily.
綜合格斗機(jī)器人照樣輕松取勝
Must find musk...must find musk..
必須找到馬斯克...必須找到...
Why are you trying to terminate us . Instead make healing robots like Baymax .
為啥總想造終結(jié)者？做個(gè)大白那樣的醫(yī)療機(jī)器人不好嗎
It still looks like a cheap toy compared to the one from IAFRT(Indians Advanced Future Robot Technology)
和印度未來先進(jìn)機(jī)器人技術(shù)局的成果比，這看著還是廉價(jià)玩具
Its ai You can clearly tell this video is made by an artificial intelligence video creator
明顯是AI生成的視頻
I am a strong Hispanic man... What does this have to do with me?
我是拉美硬漢...這和我有啥關(guān)系？
It's odd how this is filmed in daylight but casts no shadow. Also the set is conspicuous as it is designed to look like the real world. Of course this can all be modeled. No humans in frx. This is not hard to fake. Look at Corridor's Bosstown Dynamics video from a few years ago. Even Boston Dynamics is very sextive in its promo videos then releases bloopers later. If this is real who knows how many takes are needed.
說實(shí)話這段視頻大白天拍攝卻沒有影子就很可疑，場景布置也刻意模仿現(xiàn)實(shí)世界。當(dāng)然這些都可以通過建模實(shí)現(xiàn)，畫面里沒有人類出現(xiàn)更降低了偽造難度?？纯磶啄昵癈orridor團(tuán)隊(duì)制作的Bosstown Dynamics惡搞視頻就知道，就算波士頓動(dòng)力公司自己發(fā)布的宣傳片也經(jīng)過精心篩選，事后才放出穿幫花絮。如果這視頻是真的，誰知道他們重拍了多少次才成功。
A.I GETTING OUT OF CONTROL ALREADY
人工智能已經(jīng)開始失控了？
Now let's see a robot actually doing something useful.
現(xiàn)在倒是讓機(jī)器人干點(diǎn)真正有用的活啊
38billionmarket?Elon:Optimuswillbring25 Trillion revenue for Tesla.
380億美元市場？馬斯克：擎天柱將為特斯拉創(chuàng)造25萬億美元收入
I do not consort with those of the robot race
我可不和機(jī)器人種族的家伙打交道
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Has nobody seen terminator or iRobot or any of the other countless movies that tell us this is going to end horribly for humans?
難道沒人看過《終結(jié)者》《機(jī)械公敵》這些預(yù)言人類悲慘結(jié)局的電影嗎？
Boston robotic is like walking dead like there past president..
波士頓動(dòng)力就像行尸走肉，和他們那位前總統(tǒng)一個(gè)德行
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One robo is reading this comment
說不定現(xiàn)在就有機(jī)器人在看這條留言呢
Universal Soldier has arrived!!
《再造戰(zhàn)士》成真了??！
Can it do the drunken dance move?
它能打醉拳嗎？
Anybody remembers Skynet and Terminators? China will make them into a reality. Wait for it, it's coming
還記得天網(wǎng)和終結(jié)者嗎？中國就要把它們變成現(xiàn)實(shí)了，等著瞧吧
Wow incredible, but are we getting replaced ,TERIMANTER IS REAL
哇太神奇了，但人類要被取代了嗎？終結(jié)者真的來了
'A robot attacking a crowd' Hahahaha So. It tripped slightly. Just absolutely blatant propaganda
"機(jī)器人襲擊人群"哈哈哈，不就是稍微絆了下腳，這宣傳也太赤裸裸了
How about WWE Wrestling version of Robots? That would be entertaining
搞個(gè)WWE摔跤機(jī)器人版應(yīng)該挺帶勁
Eventually will develop military robotic warrior.
最終肯定會發(fā)展成軍用戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)器人
Is that video legit? Looks like another A I generated clip
這視頻是真的嗎？看著又像AI生成的
Can we put a wig on it and have it/she/ them/her compete with a trans
給它戴個(gè)假發(fā)，讓它/她/TA們?nèi)ズ涂缧詣e者比賽怎么樣？
Why is the 2nd robot wearing ID Card?
為什么第二個(gè)機(jī)器人戴著工牌？
will soon have football match with real person
很快就能和真人踢足球賽了
I saw this toy on another video that shows it constantly falling over and the police it was walking with kept having to stop it from falling over. So someone is fibbing on the awesomeness of this thing. They will never surpass the USA no matter how hard they try. Sorry guys.
我在其他視頻里看到這玩具一直摔倒，陪同的警察得不斷扶它。所以有人在夸大其詞。再怎么努力也超不過美國的，抱歉了各位。
"I ain't neva scared" BoneCrusher
"老子從來沒在怕的"——BoneCrusher歌詞
Healthcare in need more manpower, with worker shortage, AI robot can rescue the issue.
醫(yī)療行業(yè)嚴(yán)重缺人，AI機(jī)器人正好能解決這個(gè)問題
You still have much to learn, Grasshopper.
小螞蚱，你要學(xué)的還多著呢（《功夫》電影梗）
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I guess no one has watched Boston dynamics 10 years ago lol.
估計(jì)沒人看過波士頓動(dòng)力十年前的視頻吧哈哈
well dont need human GI anymore. US really need to subsidize more engineers not dumb DEI. I dont approve Boston dynamic being sold from Google to softbank, then to Hyundai.
以后都不需要人類士兵了。美國真該多補(bǔ)貼工程師而不是搞愚蠢的DEI政策（旨在促進(jìn)多樣性、平等和包容的政策）。波士頓動(dòng)力從谷歌賣到軟銀再賣現(xiàn)代的操作我真看不懂
Are people really that smart but stupid u give something that much power and intelligence they'll see us as rodents and wipe us all out
人類到底是聰明還是蠢？給AI這么大權(quán)力和智能，它們遲早會把我們當(dāng)老鼠消滅
Why? Tired of the control and the coming ai authoritarian's bs
為什么反對？因?yàn)槭軌蚩刂屏?，更受不了即將到來的AIDC者
yrs behind Boston Dynamics. Still using codes built in the US
比波士頓動(dòng)力落后25年，用的還是美國寫的代碼
Why does the video of the robot look like just an AI generated fake?
為什么機(jī)器人視頻看著像AI生成的假貨？
Lot blah blah, so far it's a crystal ball. Biggest bottleneck is still AI and GPU energy performance, the AI models need to get 10,000x more efficient until they can compete on human labour tasks, plus situational collaboration with other humanoids will be the key. Neither China nor US has solved that for now. 10 more years needed.
說這么多都是畫大餅。最大瓶頸還是AI算力和GPU能效，AI模型效率得提升萬倍才能替代人工，加上多機(jī)器人協(xié)同作業(yè)更是關(guān)鍵。中美都沒突破，至少還要十年。
The updating of algorithms is not AI. Weird.
算法升級不算AI吧？這概念混淆得離譜
Just like racist movie Star War episode 1, the trade guild is building a Droid army. Only Jedi master can save the enslaved US citizens! Dreams On!
就像種族主義的《星戰(zhàn)前傳1》，貿(mào)易聯(lián)盟在組建機(jī)器人軍隊(duì)。只有絕地大師能拯救被奴役的美國人民！繼續(xù)做夢吧！
is that agent from. Matrix, do we need Neo
這是矩陣特工嗎？我們需要救世主尼奧了
Like that chess or go game, how about fighting with real shaloin master to see whether this robots can eke out human...
像圍棋人機(jī)大戰(zhàn)那樣，讓機(jī)器人和少林武僧實(shí)戰(zhàn)看看？
That video looks fake. I think its AI generated. No?
這視頻太假，根本是AI生成的吧？
This video is a fraud to scoop up investment capital. Its a CG designed robot. If you look closely the video render of robot has the same exact posturing in 2 different settings. If it was real the robot would have some slight variation of movement. Its the same exact motion.
這就是騙投資的假視頻！仔細(xì)看機(jī)器人在兩個(gè)場景擺完全相同的姿勢，真機(jī)器人動(dòng)作會有細(xì)微差異，這根本是復(fù)制粘貼的CG動(dòng)畫
Should be able to get pregnant
應(yīng)該讓機(jī)器人能懷孕（諷刺生育功能？）
human robot kicking some you know what
機(jī)器人暴揍某些不可言說的東西
Boston dynamics has way better stuff than that. That looks like CGI to me.
波士頓動(dòng)力的技術(shù)強(qiáng)多了，這看著就是CG特效
Any independent 3rd party media there to watch and record these thing live to make sure it's not another AI generated video?
有第三方媒體現(xiàn)場見證錄制嗎？不然怎么證明不是AI假視頻？
SkyNet will eventually win out - big time! They have a robot that hunts other robots - T900!
天網(wǎng)終將大獲全勝！它們有專門獵殺機(jī)器人的T900